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The London Metals Market was closed on Monday for a summer bank holiday
.
The main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 21550 yuan / ton, the lowest 20805 yuan / ton, closing at 21495 yuan / ton, up 3.
92% from the closing price of the previous trading day, holding 355280 lots, a daily increase of 9141 lots
.
basis - 465 yuan/ton; Shanghai aluminum 2109-2110 monthly price difference of 10 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) Fed Chairman Powell: The employment situation in the United States continues to improve, the Fed will begin to withdraw some loose monetary policy this year, but it is not eager to raise interest rates, and the dollar trend is under pressure
.
(2) As of August 30, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 754,000 tons, down 04,000 tons from last Thursday (26th), and 760,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(3) National Development and Reform Commission: The tiered electricity price of the electrolytic aluminum industry is graded, and it is strictly forbidden to introduce preferential electricity price policies
.
Spot analysis: spot A00 aluminum reported 201010-21050 yuan / ton, the average price was 21030 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 400 yuan
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 78,650 tons, a daily decrease of 447 tons; As of 27 August, LME stocks stood at 1338125 tonnes, an increase of 31,175 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 221601 lots, an increase of 5600 lots per day, a short position of 216362 lots, a daily increase of 4589 lots, a net long position of 5239 lots, a daily decrease of 1640 lots
.
Long and short increase, net long decrease
.
Market research and judgment: Fed Chairman Powell made dovish remarks at the annual meeting of the global central bank, the dollar index came under pressure and pulled back, and macro sentiment picked up
.
Domestically, the dual control of energy consumption in production areas and environmental protection inspectors continued to ferment, and Ningxia and Xinjiang once again spoke out, stimulating market bulls
.
The scale of subsequent electrolytic aluminum production reduction is likely to be further expanded, and supply disturbances are expected to continue to form strong futures price support
.
In addition, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to degrade, coupled with the current market for the "gold nine silver ten" consumption season has certain expectations, under the change of supply and demand pattern, the future market aluminum prices are still optimistic
.
In the short term, aluminum prices may be strongly volatile
.
