Macro uncertainty increases aluminum prices or volatility intensifies

On the macro front, the results of the US midterm elections were uncertain, the Republican Party failed to take a wide lead as expected, and the release of inflation data was imminent, and market caution increased
.
Domestically, the latest import and export data performed moderately, but the recent stimulus policy continues to increase, focusing on whether there is substantial benefit
.

On the supply side, production cuts in Europe and the United States are still continuing, but energy pressure has eased recently, and the marginal impact is gradually weakening
.
Domestically, the impact of power cuts in Sichuan has basically faded, and production capacity is gradually recovering
.
The scope of affected production capacity in Yunnan has not been further expanded, pay attention to its follow-up situation and duration, some aluminum plants in Henan, Guizhou and other places may reduce production recently, the current affected production capacity is less, pay attention to the follow-up progress
.
In terms of downstream demand, some processing enterprises have experienced inventory backlog due to logistics factors, and the operating rate has declined
.
In terms of terminal consumption, affected by macro factors, it is still in a weak state, and demand performance is average
.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges has declined, and the overall inventory remains low
.
At present, there is still great uncertainty in the European and American markets and the LME restriction policy on Rusal, and the results
are expected to be announced in mid-to-late November.
On the whole, the current supply-side disturbance continues, while downstream demand remains weak
.
But macro uncertainty is increasing, and aluminum prices or volatility are increasing
.