Maleic anhydride: weak demand is difficult to break through ten thousand yuan

Recently, the maleic anhydride market, which has been rising for two consecutive months, has begun to fall.
After falling below the 10,000 yuan line on June 1st, it continues to fall.
The current average market price is 9900 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is the same as the two-month high.
The point is down by 12.
78%
.

Industry insiders generally believe that under the current situation of supply and demand dominating the market trend, downstream demand lacks effective support, and there are many negative factors in the market, and it is difficult for phthalic anhydride to make further breakthroughs in the market outlook

Supply and demand dominate the market

Supply and demand relations dominate the market Supply and demand relations dominate the market

"As a chemical product with crude oil as its source, the market trend of maleic anhydride should have been basically consistent with the upstream market, but in recent years the trend of maleic anhydride has deviated from crude oil, showing a typical supply-demand-oriented market situation
.

" Zhuochuang Chemical Analyst Li Tong believes that the tilt of the balance of supply and demand basically determines the direction of the maleic anhydride market

According to the monitoring of the business agency, on May 20, affected by the severe trend of the epidemic in India and the breakthrough progress made in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, the international oil price bottomed out in stages, and then the oil price began to rise unilaterally
.

On June 8, the main contract settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US$70.

The market trend of maleic anhydride is contrary to the international crude oil market
.

In May, the price of maleic anhydride tended to rise first and then decline

"The main reason for the decline in maleic anhydride is the slowdown in downstream unsaturated resins due to environmental protection
.

" According to Wang Wei, a maleic anhydride distributor in Liaoning, under the guidance of supply and demand, the price of maleic anhydride is facing strong transaction resistance above 9,500 yuan.

　　Weak demand in the off-season

　Weak demand in the　off-season 　 Weak demand in the off-season

　　Regarding the market outlook, Li Tong believes that with the supply-demand relationship dominating the market trend, the demand-side support for maleic anhydride is weak, and the market is difficult to move up
.

　　After June, with the advent of the high temperature season and rainy season, the major downstream industries of unsaturated resins such as glass fiber reinforced plastics have gradually entered the seasonal off-season
.

“Affected by policies in the northern region and limited electricity in southern China such as Guangdong, some resin companies and downstream glass fiber reinforced plastic companies have reduced their

　　Considering policy and macroeconomic restrictions, the sluggish demand in major downstream markets such as unsaturated resins may continue for a long time
.

　　Worries about oversupply are now

　The worries of　oversupply have been revealed.
The worries of oversupply have been revealed

　　What needs more attention is that the domestic production capacity of maleic anhydride planned to be launched in the next three years has exceeded 1 million tons per year.
For the huge increase in supply, it is still unknown whether the downstream can effectively digest it
.

　　According to Li Tong, the domestic maleic anhydride market will once again usher in a new round of production boom after 2020
.

According to Zhuochuang's statistics, the domestically released or intended maleic anhydride production plan has exceeded 1 million tons per year from 2021 to 2023, and some companies are still in the state of preliminary investigation

　　This round of production plan also clearly shows the characteristics of "large-scale" and "large-scale"
.

On the one hand, there will be 4 projects with an annual production capacity of more than 200,000 tons.

　　The launch of a large number of new capacity will inevitably put pressure on the supply side of maleic anhydride
.
From the perspective of the development of the unsaturated resin market on the demand side, the current domestic future new capacity plan is only about 750,000 tons/year.
Even if it is calculated at full production, the potential demand increase is only about 160,000 tons/year, which is completely impossible.
To offset the increase in the supply of maleic anhydride in the scale of over one million tons
.

　　On the whole, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the maleic anhydride market may continue, and it is difficult for the price to break through the 10,000 yuan line again in the short term
.
In the future, production companies should focus on other downstream areas such as foreign trade exports, biodegradable plastics, and seek a broader market space
.