March 2016 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

1.
China: China has set its 2016 gross domestic product growth (GDP) target in the range of 6.
5%-7
%.
China expects CPI growth of about
3% in 2016.
China expects broad money M2 growth of about
13% in 2016.
China's urban unemployment rate is planned to be controlled within
4.
5% in 2016.
China's February exports were -20.
6% y/y (in RMB) vs.
-11.
3% expected and -6.
6%
prior.
China's February imports were -8.
0% year-on-year (in RMB), the 16th consecutive month of decline; -11.
7% expected, -14.
4%
prior.
China's February trade balance was +209.
5 billion yuan, +341 billion yuan expected, +406.
2 billion yuan
in the previous month.

2.
Europe: The ECB will expand QE to 80 billion euros
per month from April.
The scope of QE will be expanded to include non-bank corporate bonds
.
The new rate cut will take effect
on March 16.
A new long-term targeted refinancing operation (TLTRO II) is planned for a four-year period, to be launched
from June 2016.
The new four-year TLTRO rate may be as low
as the deposit rate.
The ECB's stimulus package is comprehensive and will strengthen the recovery momentum
.
The ECB QE will last at least until the end of
March 2017.
The share of bond purchases in QE will be increased to 50%.

The recovery in the eurozone economy is expected to be modest, and economic activity should be supported
by central bank monetary policy measures.
Lowered its 2016 GDP forecast from 1.
7% to 1.
4%.

Lowered the 2017 GDP forecast to 1.
7%
from 1.
9%.
Growth will be 1.
8%
in 2018.
The average inflation forecast for the euro area in 2016 was lowered to 0.
1% (previously expected to be 1.
0%) and lowered the 2017 forecast to 1.
3% (previously expected to be 1.
6%), leaving the 2018 forecast unchanged at 1.
6
%.

3.
United States: The preliminary value of the Markit composite PMI in March was 51.
1, compared with 50
in the previous month.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week of March 19 was 265,000, compared with 269,000 expected, and the previous value of 265,000 was revised to 259,000
.
The number of renewed jobless claims in the United States for the week of March 12 was 2.
179 million, compared with 2.
235 million expected, and the previous value of 2.
235 million was revised to 2.
218 million
.
The US Markit services PMI for March was 51 preliminary vs 51.
4 expected and 49.
7
previously.
Chicago Fed President Evans expects US GDP to grow by 2.
0-2.
5%
in 2016.
Economic and financial risks in 2016 were somewhat higher than previously expected
.
The March FOMC's interest rate expectations are a "pretty good backdrop"
.