March 30 aluminum market noon comment

Thermal coal fell slightly overnight, and under the suppression of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Lun aluminum fell more than 4% at a high level, opening at $3475 today
.
Shanghai aluminum opened sharply lower in the night session, rebounded to close Xiaoyang, closed at 22610.
Shanghai aluminum trading rose sharply, positions were down, and market sentiment was biased towards
neutrality.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a greater impact on the market, with medium-term fundamentals slightly optimistic, short-term volatility of Shanghai and aluminum, and medium-term is expected to continue the upward trend
of volatility.
Upper pressure 25000, lower support 22000
.

At present, there are two factors affecting the length of aluminum prices
.
Long-term factors concentrated in the outside world, with the continuation of the Ukraine-Russia war, the deepening of sanctions between the United States and Europe, in the window period when the EU has not found an energy solution, energy prices will remain high, electrolytic aluminum as a "solidified form" of energy, overseas electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, will open a window period for domestic exports, with the continuation of this state, will also affect domestic aluminum prices
for a long time.

Short-term factors concentrated in the country, the current outbreak of the epidemic in many places, the impact on transportation, upstream manufacturers shipments are affected, while the purchase of raw materials is also affected, downstream finished products in and out are affected, so the fragmentation is more serious, although the supply of Hebei, Yunnan and other places is increasing, but the arrival volume is not significant, continue to pay attention to the development of
the epidemic in the later stage.