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The copper market rose sharply on Tuesday, with the LME reaching a new high, and domestic copper limited
its gains due to the appreciation of the yuan.
The results of Wednesday's US election were confirmed, market optimism increased, and the better-than-expected economies in Europe and the United States also supported
the market when the epidemic was out of control.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy is still more likely to continue in the future, and this is a very favorable factor for commodities, the dollar rose in the short term, but this is more affected by the Eurozone epidemic rebound, and in terms of monetary policy, the Fed does not have the conditions to immediately change the current ultra-loose monetary policy, so the dollar rally has not been durable
.
In terms of fundamentals, there was still great uncertainty due to the impact of the epidemic in major producing countries such as Chile in the third quarter, which were more obvious supply-side disruptions
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity is relatively high
.
Previously, State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 460 billion yuan, but as far as the current situation is concerned, the actual investment amount of the power grid is far from reaching the standard, so there is also the possibility
of rushing construction after that.
In addition, in the new energy vehicle sector, there is also a certain support for the demand for copper prices
.
At present, in the short term, there are not many bright spots in the fundamentals, and even downstream demand has gradually entered the off-season, but on the macro front, Saudi Arabia will voluntarily cut production in February and March yesterday to offset the production growth of Russia and Kazakhstan, which makes crude oil prices rise sharply, which boosts market inflation expectations to a certain extent, which is also more favorable for copper prices, coupled with the current US dollar index continues to be weak, which also gives relatively strong support to copper varieties with relatively strong financial attributes Therefore, in the current situation of certain contradictions between fundamentals and macro, copper prices may continue to maintain a volatile pattern
.
