Market risks are basically released Shanghai aluminum has some room for repair

On the macro front, the NDRC has not yet set a tone for regulating thermal coal prices, and the current market sentiment is in a state of cautious wait-and-see and vulnerable to disturbance
.
Guangxi, Yunnan, Xinjiang and other places have successively introduced policies to determine the problem of production reduction, Yunnan and Shandong and other places have successively set off a wave of power rationing, and then Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Zhejiang and many places have introduced electricity price control policies, and the tightening of electrolytic aluminum supply is still the main contradiction
.

Fundamentally, the downstream acceptance of high aluminum prices is limited, and the national power limit and production limit suppress the downstream operating rate
.
Coupled with the current chip shortage, downstream demand is further disturbed
.
Social inventories accumulated against seasonality, up 32% from the beginning of August, and demand collapsed significantly
.
Affected by the regulation and control of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of thermal coal has fallen sharply, and the cost support has gradually weakened, but at present, the control of electricity prices has not been relaxed, superimposed alumina and pre-baked anodes have risen, and the cost support of electrolytic aluminum is still there, which is approaching the spot price
.
The collapse of demand coupled with the decline in thermal coal prices, market pessimism has seriously dragged down, and aluminum prices have fallen into a deep correction and consolidation
in the short term.
After the NDRC regulates and sets the tone, electrolytic aluminum may return to fundamental logic and return to normal trends
.

The coal price was lifted, and the price was lower than the 1200 price promised by state-owned enterprises, and the market risk was basically released; After the collapse of aluminum prices, consumption has rebounded, coupled with the closure of the import window, the decline in upstream production, the aluminum rod began to go to storage, Henan, East China if the power rationing is lifted, consumption has a large room for recovery, while the supply-side power limit production reduction and heating season policy still has space, the rapid accumulation process will be alleviated or even there will be destocking expectations, short-term prices have a certain space
for repair.