Market risks increase Shanghai copper is still dominated by consolidation in the short term

In terms of external trading, Tuesday undertook the overnight decline, London copper gap opened low at 5732.
5 US dollars / ton, the Asian session short-term rushed to 5768.
5 US dollars / ton, the high stimulated long profit outflow, copper prices under pressure to leak, back to the daily average after continuing to fall, low to 5720 US dollars / ton, the end of the Asian session low rose, recovered most of the decline, European session around the daily average of 5740 US dollars / ton line repeated consolidation, as of 17:50, London copper reported 5763.
5 US dollars / ton
.
Intraday copper opened low and then repeatedly consolidated around the 20-day moving average to test, and the market was more cautious
before the Fed interest rate meeting.
In the afternoon, the LME announced that copper stocks increased by 16,625 tons, and the proportion of warehouse receipts written off fell from 48.
97% on Friday to 41.
97% yesterday, and continued to fall to 37.
88% on Tuesday, putting pressure
on London copper in the short term.

In terms of macro, the latest domestic macro data show that the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.
2% year-on-year in November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.
8% year-on-year, both better than expected, and urban fixed asset investment (so far this year) increased by 8.
3% year-on-year, unchanged
from expectations.
At present, the outlook for the domestic economy next year is divergent, no matter which side, they believe that the current domestic economy is stabilizing and recovering, but some analysts believe that there is a risk
of the domestic economy falling after the first quarter of next year.

In terms of the market, Shanghai copper was hindered from falling, the basis of the next month of near delivery expanded to 200-250 yuan / ton, making speculators eager to move, entering the market to receive goods, holders generally depending on the basis change quotation, intraday mainstream quotation is more disordered, especially the price difference between flat water copper brands expanded, wet copper and flat water copper price difference further narrowed, because copper prices lagged back to some downstream on-demand to receive goods, near noon the market is difficult to find a source of water copper, flat water copper benefited, the transaction was significantly improved
compared with yesterday.
As delivery approaches, even if the price spread remains at a large level, there is limited
room for copper premium pushing.
In the afternoon, the market fell, and the premium copper premium rose to 100 yuan / ton - 130 yuan / ton, due to the unstable fluctuation of the premium, there was no interest downstream
.
The supply of copper in flat water is abundant, and the premium remains stable at 30 yuan / ton - 60 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is 46480 yuan / ton - 46780 yuan / ton
.

In terms of industry, according to news, the Zambian government's Ministry of Mines and Mines expects the country's copper production to rise to 800,000 tons next year, as new mining projects start and international copper prices stabilize, which is 60,000 tons
higher than the country's expected copper production this year.
Overall, the fundamentals of the copper market have indeed become stronger than before, but they do not support copper prices to get out of the bull market, considering the proximity to the Fed interest rate meeting, market risks have increased, it is recommended to operate
cautiously.