May 11 Shanghai copper brief commentary

On the macro front, the recovery in Europe and the United States continued to improve, the inflation logic was hyped again, the US non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the US dollar continued to weaken; London copper stood at an all-time high, but some investors took profits and closed their positions triggering a major correction
.

On the supply side, TC rebounded slightly, but the interference showed signs of increase, refined copper production grew rapidly, and imports also showed a high growth rate
.
On the demand side, the marginal recovery of domestic terminal demand, but the inflection point of domestic copper inventories is not obvious, and there is fear of heights downstream after the sharp rise in copper prices
.
However, overseas inventories continue to decline, domestic exports are growing at a high rate, and overseas factors are more dominant
.

At present, due to the trend of decarbonization of green energy, long-term metal copper demand is still expected to increase, on the other hand, the increase in Chile's copper mine tax burden has also brought supply concerns, and copper prices still have a preference outlook
in the medium and long term.
In the near future, with the good control of the epidemic in the United States and the continuation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, the US Treasury is less concerned about inflation, and market funds entering the commodity market to fight inflation have increased, pushing short-term Shanghai copper to soar, and as prices enter a fifteen-year high, fear of heights increases, and there is a pullback
.
At present, the current round of price upward momentum is weak, Shanghai copper may enter a period of high volatility, volatility will be enhanced, pay attention to the main force around 7.
5-77,000 range
.