May 16 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

At present, the mismatch between domestic supply and demand caused by the epidemic and the opening of the export window caused by the energy crisis still exist, and the new variable is the continuation of the high supply situation brought about by the high start of domestic electrolytic aluminum
.
Because the demand is generally accepted by the market, the market is also trading the future supply and demand mismatch repair, but from the current observation of the domestic epidemic situation, it can be seen that the inflection point in Shanghai has appeared, but Beijing, Zhengzhou and other places have begun to tighten, and with the further deepening of the domestic supply and demand mismatch, the market has the possibility of ushering in a short-term adjustment and is still there
.

Supported by the gradual recovery of domestic demand, the trend of aluminum prices may be firm, but in view of the fierce conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high market uncertainty, and the Fed's strong expectation of interest rate hikes in June, macro disturbances, the overall upside of aluminum prices is limited, the upper focus on the 21000 mark pressure level, the overall fluctuation range 19500-20800, the operation of the recommended rebound space is limited, wait and see.