May 18 Copper Market Brief Review

At present, the fundamentals of the copper market are relatively quiet, the short-term market logic has not changed, and copper prices have not given feedback on the demand off-season, mainly because the previous total supply contraction made the spot market feel not strong
.
However, this situation may begin to change, first of all, the price spread between the various brands in the spot market has begun to diverge, and the cumulative spread is now widening
.
Secondly, the spot premium in the bonded zone has rebounded again, because the previous imports were basically in the break-even stage, and the actual imports have been stimulated to a certain extent
.
In addition, although the inventory in the bonded area has decreased from the previous high, the total amount is still relatively large, and if there is a certain expectation of appreciation in the short term, it may promote imports, so the import supply is expected to increase
.

Therefore, on the whole, copper prices still need to wait for the off-season demand expectations to land, before they can really improve, and short-term copper prices still lack trading value
.

In the medium term, the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in 2017 is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, while the refining capacity is more available, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make copper prices fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.