May 19 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Recently, due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, downstream processing enterprises are afraid of heights, and the market circulation is not good, but from the perspective of downstream orders, the current order volume is sufficient, and the demand is still good, supporting aluminum prices, and the market expects that domestic electrolytic aluminum will maintain a slight destocking trend in May, but the destocking rate may be difficult to increase
.
At the same time, due to the delay in the production capacity of new production capacity in Yunnan, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in May and June may not be as
much as expected.
In the short term, after a rapid rise in the market, a pullback is not ruled out, but the space for a pullback is limited
.

At present, the support effect of domestic and foreign policies on aluminum prices has gradually weakened, and the good news in the early stage has been continuously consumed by the market, and the rise in aluminum prices has been weak; Short-term Shanghai aluminum faces certain risk of pullback; However, from the perspective of domestic fundamentals, the current aluminum ingot inventory is about to fall below one million tons, with the support of destocking, the main force of Shanghai aluminum can temporarily pay attention to the fluctuation of 1.
9-19,500 ranges, and buy on the low operation, and it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate and pullback
.