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U.
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credit rating agency Moody’s said on May 12 that the average profitability of the chemical industry in North America and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) in 2020 may fall by 20% year-on-year due to the impact of the global pandemic of the new crown virus.
The period is expected to occur in May or June
.
The financial report for the first quarter of this year shows that although the Asia-Pacific region experienced supply disruptions due to the new crown virus epidemic at the beginning of this year, countries in North America and EMEA regions also generally adopted blockade measures in March to prevent and control the epidemic
.
Moody's predicts that the negative impact of the epidemic on chemical producers in these regions will gradually become apparent, with bulk chemical and industrial plastics producers likely to be most affected in May and June, with a decline in capacity utilization or idle production facilities expected to reduce excess capacity.
Supply and inventory levels
.
According to Moody's, the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on commodity chemical producers and specialty chemical producers is quite different
.
In the field of bulk chemicals, the decline in market demand for titanium dioxide is more moderate, while the market demand for ethylene, styrene, polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) may decline by 40%
.
Moody's also noted that producers of bulk and intermediate chemicals that supply industrial end markets, such as Dow Chemical, INEOS and Huntsman, could see their EBITDA fall by more than 20% this year
.
China has experienced the initial peak of coronavirus infections ahead of the rest of the world and can provide guidance for the future of North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa
.
Western economies have experienced sharper contractions, and the road to normal demand levels may be longer
.