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Trade Service
This week, commodities are under overall pressure to the upside, and macro atmosphere is preferred
.
Natural rubber belongs to the international variety, the domestic and foreign prices are strongly linked, and the price of internal and external rubber futures affects
each other.
From the supply side, after the peak season in the pre-production area, there is a strong improvement in new rubber, and the epidemic situation in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia is severe, and the flow of glue workers and logistics transportation are blocked
.
At present, Thailand is in the period of increasing production, Yunnan alternative indicators have been issued, and the follow-up will flow into the Yunnan market, coupled with the arrival of the domestic peak production period, the supply of new rubber is expected to grow
.
China's natural rubber import cargo is at a low level as a whole, and the pressure on the supply side of natural rubber in the later period may be weaker than expected, and rubber prices are under great pressure
.
In terms of inventory, the inventory in the previous period continued to be low, Qingdao inventory was destocked to a low level, overseas demand was relatively strong, prices were strong outside and weak inside, and domestic arrivals were reduced
.
Export orders face the dual impact
of container shortages and slowing overseas demand.
Light glue stocks gradually accumulated, and dark rubber stocks slowed down
.
In terms of downstream demand, affected by the shortage of chips and the rise in raw materials, the production and sales of the domestic automobile market in July showed a year-on-year and month-on-month decline
.
This week's data shows that the price of imported rubber fell slightly, domestic inventories decreased, domestic rubber prices fell sharply, and the fundamentals are expected to be tight
in the short term.
This week's cumulative volatility fell slowly, and the sharp decline in the futures trend at the end of the day was more obvious
.
It is expected that in the short term, affected by market sentiment, there is no new negative in fundamentals, natural rubber will be dominated by weak shock operation, early September is indeed not conducive to bulls, seasonal bearish
.
In the near future
, it is necessary to focus on the rubber tapping operation in Southeast Asian production areas.
The market is still pessimistic
about domestic demand in the second half of the year.
In the medium and long term, the market may have a phased rebound opportunity
at the end of the year or early next year.
