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Recently, due to the downward pressure of the domestic macroeconomy, the manufacturing PMI data is not ideal, the cost of capital continues to rise, coupled with the continuous sharp decline in international oil prices and weak fundamentals and other factors, Shanghai rubber has continued to fall, breaking the consolidation trend of the previous two weeks
.
According to the latest forecast of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, all major producing countries except Indonesia this year are mainly expected to increase production, and the supply is likely to be loose
throughout the year.
Recently, the Thai production area is gradually cutting, and the domestic production area will also fully enter the rubber tapping period, and the supply side will gradually increase the volume in the
future.
From the perspective of inventory, the inventory of domestic rubber bonded areas has increased
rapidly.
As of early May, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone totaled 249,800 tons, an increase of 29,700 tons or 13.
49%
from mid-April.
Since mid-February, the inventory in the bonded area has begun to show a rapid upward trend, and the accumulation rate of inventory is the fastest in the past five years, and the growth rate has not slowed down at all
.
In terms of downstream market demand, the high growth rate of heavy-duty truck sales may be difficult to maintain
.
First of all, with the passage of time, the marginal effect brought by last year's new policy will gradually weaken, and it is impossible to predict whether the subsequent logistics heavy trucks can grow steadily after
the gradual completion of relevant orders.
And since mid-January, China's road logistics freight index has continued to decline, while oil prices have risen all the way, and have now risen to a yearly high of 7,000 yuan / ton, and the rising cost of heavy trucks combined with the decline in freight will also drag down the sales of
some heavy trucks.
In summary, under the support of unfavorable factors, the center of gravity of Shanghai rubber may continue to decline
.