Nonferrous macro picked up, and aluminum prices maintained a wide range of volatility

Last week, Shanghai aluminum closed at 18,725 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.
13%.

Supply side: According to SMM, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will continue to rise to 41.
4 million tons in July, with an output of 3.
48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
2%.

An aluminum plant in Sichuan stopped production due to power and maintenance reasons, and the overall scale was around 280,000 tons, and the supply pressure was slightly released
.

Demand: Consumption in the off-season is weak, there are high temperature power rationing problems in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan-Chongqing and other places, and the operating rate of SMM's downstream leading processing enterprises this month increased by 0.
3% to 65.
8%.

。 Driven by the demand for air-conditioning foil, the operating rate of aluminum foil increased by 1.
4% to 82.
1%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.
1% to 66.
7%, the supply of raw materials was not enough, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum decreased by 0.
3% to 49.
1%; The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip remained stable at 79.
6%, the operating rate of primary aluminum remained stable at 60%, and the operating rate of aluminum cable enterprises remained stable at 57%; Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable, Nanchang Wuxi decreased by 40-90 yuan / ton, Guangdong increased by 30-60 yuan / ton; The aluminum rod processing fee is reduced by 25-40 yuan / ton; Aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 increased by 150 yuan/ton, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 300 yuan/ton
.

Inventory: In terms of exchange inventory, the LME destocked 11,900 tons to 277,200 tons last week, and Shanghai aluminum accumulated 02,900 tons to 178,700 tons
.
In terms of social stocks, alumina was destocked last week by 03,000 tons to 157,000 tons; aluminum ingots accumulated 15,000 tons to 693,000 tons last week; and aluminum rods accumulated 05,500 tons to 130,000 tons
last week.

Viewpoint: Overseas interest rate hike expectations have fallen, macro pressure has been suspended, and nonferrous metals have picked up
.
Some aluminum plants in Sichuan suddenly reduced production, and after the recent cost decline, the profit of aluminum plants has been repaired, the pace of resumption of production in Gansu, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places has not been significantly affected, the overall supply pressure is still there, and the rhythm of new resumption of production may be disturbed; The off-season cycle is superimposed on high temperature power rationing, downstream consumption is not optimistic, spot and rise are weak, and the aluminum ingot social library is not smooth to destock.

It is expected that there will be pressure on the upward trend of aluminum prices or continue to be weak, focusing on domestic aluminum ingot inventories and overseas energy prices
.