November 15 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Domestic peak season accumulation continues, real estate regulation and control policies hinder downstream demand, with aluminum prices returning to the 20,000 mark, downstream demand is temporarily weak because of downstream power rationing, pay close attention to inventory changes in various places
.
There is still uncertainty about domestic winter power cuts, and there is a possibility
of further production reduction of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter.

The continued rise of the US dollar has caused the market to further worry about inflationary pressure, non-ferrous metals are under serious pressure as a whole, and the current macro bullish sentiment is spreading, which has suppressed aluminum prices to a certain extent; On the other hand, the supply side still maintains a weak pattern, although the downstream operating rate of the lifting of the power curtailment problem has rebounded slightly, but the actual increase in consumption is limited; The inventory end is still unstable in recent days, and the support effect below the price is limited, the overall macro sentiment fluctuations interfere with the price of aluminum or maintain a weak operation, vigilance below 19,000 may fall, the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see-based, merchants at high appropriate shipments, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum may fall
.