November 21 Copper Market Morning Review

At the macro level, the improvement of the expected slowdown in macro is good for basic digestion, and 50BP is unlikely to be lower next month, and we believe that the game of interest rate hikes in the later stage is no longer the main logic, and it is more critical to pay attention to the speed and magnitude of the actual inflation downward trend and the economic downturn; From a fundamental point of view, the domestic accumulation of more than 20,000 tons in a week, refinery supply has begun to show signs of volume, the subsequent supply increment is still relatively obvious, high prices have obvious inhibition on the domestic downstream, although the spot is still high, but the far month basis has fallen rapidly, and the tension pattern has eased greatly; Overseas signs of weakening fundamentals are reflected in the continuous increase in European registered warehouse receipts after the LME lifted sanctions against Russian metals, the spot premium quickly turned to a deep discount state, and the overall inventory increased
slightly.

Macro expectations have fallen into a tug-of-war, but the main logic has not changed, and the fundamentals have begun to show some signs of weakening, but the low inventory pattern still exists, and it is expected that with the verification of real data, price pressure will gradually increase
.
It is expected that the price will run in the range of 64000-66500 yuan / ton
next week.