November 8 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

In terms of supply and demand, bauxite supply is tight, alumina smelting is difficult to make a profit, under the replacement of new and old production capacity, alumina is only a small excess, price fluctuations are not large, superimposed electricity prices and smelting auxiliary products fluctuations are also limited, so electrolytic aluminum smelting costs are difficult to decrease, it is reported that Yunnan production capacity is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing, Guangxi region slowly resumed production, it is expected that in November domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 3.
37 million tons
.

In terms of consumption, domestic and overseas demand is more likely to fall month-on-month
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 41,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 100 tons
.
Driven by the cost logic, aluminum prices are slowly revised upward from a low level, but consumption is difficult to find bright expectations, and there is no signal of further tightening of supply, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, it is recommended to maintain high selling and low absorption
.