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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's output of ten non-ferrous metals in September 2022 was 5.
78 million tons, an increase of 8.
8% year-on-year; China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in September was 3.
42 million tons, an increase of 9.
3% year-on-year; From January to September, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 29.
88 million tons, an increase of 2.
8%
year-on-year.
2.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of alumina in September in 2022 will be 7.
052 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
5%; The cumulative output from January to September was 61.
471 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
4%.
Among them, Shandong alumina production in the first September decreased by 1.
42% year-on-year, and Shanxi and Guangxi alumina production increased by 5.
75% and 12.
44%
respectively.
3.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2022, China exported 495981 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, an increase of 0.
8% year-on-year, and the export value reached 12.
84 billion yuan
.
From January to September, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 5,197,073.
1 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.
8%; The export value reached CNY 136.
68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.
9
%.
In September, China imported 203,300 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, down 19.
6% year-on-year; From January to September, the cumulative import was 1.
6805 million tons, down 26.
1%
year-on-year.
4.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, overseas alumina prices fell in September, and China's alumina import market opened, with alumina imports of 249,000 tons in the month, an increase of 58.
7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.
2%; Exports were 87,000 tons, down 25.
4% month-on-month and up 2,336% year-on-year, of which 81,000 tons were exported to Russia, accounting for 94.
0% of the month's
exports.
From January to September, China's cumulative imports of alumina were 1.
419 million tons, down 47.
3% year-on-year; The cumulative export was 806,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 687.
3
%.
5.
According to data released by the International Aluminium Association (IAI), the global production of alumina in September was 11.
596 million tons, with an average daily output of 386,500 tons
.
Production in August was revised to 12.
003 million tons
.
China's estimated production of alumina in September was 6.
8 million mt
, IAI said.
6.
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released its January-August 2022 Metal Balance Report
on October 19.
The report shows that from January to August 2022, primary aluminum is in a supply shortage state
.
From January to August 2022, the global primary aluminum market had a supply shortage of 797,000 tons, and for the whole of 2021, it was a supply shortage of 1.
603 million tons
.
In the first eight months of 2022, global primary aluminum demand was 45.
99 million mt, down 349,000 mt
from the same period last year.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
In October, aluminum prices showed a volatile downward trend, and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sideways for two weeks, but at the end of the month, due to the drag of poor domestic fundamentals, aluminum prices once again fell below the 18,000 mark, and as of the end of the month, the cumulative decline reached 4.
02%.
Aluminum prices briefly rose to near-month highs during the month due to the outflow of the market LME and rumors that the United States considered banning Russian metal trading, and then although the discussion was not implemented, concerns about supply disruptions continued to support prices to remain high.
In terms of the market, the market demand after the holiday is acceptable, and the sentiment of downstream enterprises entering the market is high, but with the spread of the epidemic, some areas have been controlled, dragging down some market transactions
.
East China: In October, the price of electrolytic aluminum was greatly affected by the event that the United States considered a comprehensive ban on Russian aluminum, and the market speculation atmosphere revived, and the aluminum price rose after the holiday, and the spot price once approached the 19,000 mark; however, as the market sentiment eased, electrolytic aluminum returned to a wide range around 18,500; at the end of the month, under the influence of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and the decline in domestic market demand due to the epidemic, aluminum prices suffered a heavy setback, and spot aluminum prices fell below 18,000
.
By the end of October, the price in East China was 17840-17880 yuan / ton, down 480 yuan / ton
from the end of September.
Entering November, the price has picked up slightly, and as of this Friday, the spot aluminum price in East China is 18260-18300 yuan / ton
.
South China: The overall performance of aluminum ingots in South China rose first and then fell in October, and the price of aluminum ingots with tickets was between 18260-18360 yuan / ton at the end of October, down 320 yuan from the end of September; Entering November, the price rebounded slightly, and the price was between 18850-18950 yuan / ton as of this Friday; In terms of the spot market, after the holiday, enterprises are afraid of heights, just need to receive goods, the transaction has improved in the middle and late months, the local market has sufficient supply, the operating rate of downstream profile enterprises has rebounded, and the transaction in the South China market in October is acceptable
.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
According to data from the London Metal Exchange (LME), under the joint voice of Europe and the United States, the market's panic about the ban on Russian aluminum trading has rapidly increased, which has also led to frequent delivery in the market
.
LME aluminum stocks surged in October, with LME aluminum stocks at 586225 tonnes as of October 31, an increase of about 254,000 tons from the end of September, a monthly increase of 76.
5%.
Heading into November, LME inventories fell slightly, with LME aluminium stocks at 577875 tonnes
as of November 3.
As of the end of the month, the previous aluminum inventory was 178485 tons, an increase of 3,974 tons, or 2.
3%, compared with the end of September; As of November 4, the stock of the previous period was 161,640 tons, and it is expected to continue the downward trend
in the short term.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketIn October, the national scrap aluminum price showed a downward trend, and there was still a clear variety difference in the month, and the raw aluminum and cans resisted the decline obviously, and the decline was mostly about 200 yuan; Aluminum alloy, aluminum wire and other scrap aluminum has followed the decline, the decline is mostly
about 500 yuan.
In terms of spot market transactions, the epidemic in many places re-emerged in October, and the transactions in Henan Changge, Zhengzhou, Shandong Linyi and other markets were seriously affected, enterprises were forced to stop collection, coupled with control reasons, freight rates also increased; The orders of downstream recycled aluminum enterprises are acceptable, and the more prominent problem is that the procurement of raw materials is not smooth, and even some enterprises feedback that they cannot all put into production
due to insufficient raw materials.
In addition, it is understood that the gap between large aluminum enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises gradually widened in October, which is reflected in the control of costs on the one hand, and the stability of orders on the other hand; On the cost side, even if the industry environment is up, the average smelting cost of the market rises and the profit declines, but large and medium-sized enterprises can control their production costs more stably due to their brand effect, customer viscosity and advanced equipment, so as to maintain a certain production profit, but most enterprises in the market have to face the dilemma of loss-making production
.
At present, the upward pressure of aluminum prices still exists, even if the price has shown moderate signs of recovery recently, but the overall downward trend of aluminum prices has not changed
.
The off-season is approaching, and it is expected that scrap prices will not improve, and there is still a risk
of falling in November.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
After entering November, the market has entered the traditional off-season, and the domestic infrastructure investment increment is limited, the supply and demand side of the support for aluminum prices will become weaker, the long-term trend of aluminum prices must still show a downward curve, but in the short term, considering the concentrated release of interest rate hikes overseas, it is expected that after the bottoming rebound stage of the technical surface, there is still a wave of sentiment and the recovery brought by the capital promotion, the upper high is temporarily referred to 18,500; the fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum within the month refers to 1.
7-18,500
.
