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Aluminum market morning comment: The US dollar index fell sharply and worries about the LME ban on Russian metals, and the price of aluminum soared overnight, and the LME three-month aluminum price rose 5.
19% to $2330 / ton
.
The Shanghai aluminum night trading was driven by the external market, but the rally was obviously insufficient
.
The 2212 contract closed above 18665 yuan / ton, an increase of less than 100 yuan / ton
.
The overall transaction of the spot market in the morning is general, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has declined, on-demand purchasing, and trading between traders has also decreased
significantly.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 18,640 yuan / ton, which is basically the same
as that of futures.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 18830 yuan / ton
.
The LME is about to make a decision on whether to exclude Russian metals, and once excluded, more Russian aluminum will be sent to China, increasing domestic supply and putting pressure
on domestic prices.
However, the European and American markets have lost the supply of Russian aluminum and have to purchase more Chinese aluminum products
.
Therefore, in the absence of a production cut in Russia, the ban will greatly shift the international aluminum market trade flow and gradually achieve a new balance
.
Relevant resolutions of the LME will disturb the short-term supply and demand pattern, causing sharp fluctuations in the external aluminum price, which in turn will affect the domestic aluminum price
.
From a fundamental point of view, domestic prices lack a sustained upward drive, and it is not recommended to chase higher
operationally.
Keep an eye on overseas trends
.