Oil prices continue to climb and companies meet the big test

On October 11, U.
S.
crude oil prices continued to soar, once again refreshing a new seven-year high, and Brent oil hit a three-year high
.
As of 18:34 on the same day, the main connection of U.
S.
crude oil and the main connection of Brent crude oil (main link: main continuous contract) rose to 81.
61 US dollars / barrel and 84.
26 US dollars / barrel, respectively, an increase of 2.
85% and 2.
27%.

Up to now, domestic refined oil prices have risen
thirteen times during the year.

How long can oil still be hot? For the future market, industry insiders believe that there is more demand for oil heating in winter, OPEC increased production as originally planned, coupled with the energy crisis in Europe and the United States, resulting in strong expectations of oil prices rise in October, but the overall optimism about oil prices in the fourth quarter, it should be noted that there may be a risk
of pullback.

Recently, international oil prices have risen significantly, and the price of U.
S.
oil futures once exceeded $79 per barrel a few days ago, approaching the $80 mark, hitting a new high
in 7 years.
Brent oil also broke above $82 per barrel, refreshing a new closing high
since October 2018.

Domestic refined oil prices were raised 13 times during the year

But the road to oil prices has not ended, on October 11, the main company of U.
S.
crude oil and the main company of Brent crude oil continued to rise, as of 18:34 on the same day, the main company of U.
S.
crude oil and the main company of Brent crude oil rose to $81.
61 / barrel and $84.
26 / barrel respectively, an increase of 2.
85% and 2.
27%
respectively.

Since 24:00 on October 9, 2021, the domestic refined oil price has been raised for the 13th time this year, with the price per ton increased by 345 yuan, setting a new record
for the largest increase in the year.
The national average: No.
92 gasoline increased by 0.
27 yuan per liter; No.
95 gasoline increased by 0.
29 yuan per liter; No.
0 diesel increased by 0.
28 yuan
per liter.

The increase in production cannot meet the increase in demand

The industry generally believes that the positive factors at both ends of supply and demand affect the continuous rise
in oil prices.
"The rise in crude oil is directly related to the tight balance between supply and demand or even the shortage of supply and demand, and although the current 'OPEC+' production is increasing, the increase in production cannot meet the current demand for
crude oil.
" Xu Na, an oil product analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said frankly in an interview with reporters
.

As of the last week of September, 16 percent of crude oil production in the hurricane-hit U.
S.
Gulf Coast region was still reported to be shut down
.
The OPEC+ meeting still maintained a small production increase of 400,000 b/d per month, and did not consider measures to deal with the continued rise
in oil prices.

And the energy demand side is still rising
.
The industry generally believes that as the international epidemic situation continues to improve, the global economic recovery and the growth of crude oil demand are good, the growth rate of energy demand exceeds previous market expectations
.
This, combined with low gas inventories in Europe and increased demand, has led to skyrocketing natural gas prices and spurred the price
of crude oil as an alternative.

Xu Na added that in order to boost the economy this year, the Fed's policy is also biased towards easing, driving the commodity market up, "As a relatively important energy source, basically the rise in crude oil will drive the rise
of the commodity market.
" She explained
.

Analyse:

The agency said that it is generally optimistic about oil prices in the fourth quarter

When and where will oil prices rise in the future? "There is more demand for oil heating in winter, so it further boosts the bullish mentality
of the market.
" Xu Na said frankly that due to the rise of commodities, for economic entities in various countries, especially enterprises in the energy and chemical industry, the price of raw materials will rise and operating costs will increase
.
As for when and what price it will rise, it is indeed difficult to predict, the overall expectation of October rise is still relatively strong, short-term can see the price of $85 / barrel
.
The fourth quarter is generally optimistic about oil prices, and it should be noted that there may be risks
of a pullback.

Guohai Liangshi Futures said that the October "OPEC+" meeting continued to maintain the pace of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month, and in the case of a relatively stable release on the supply side, the market is more in the growth expectations of the trading demand side, that is, the recovery of international flights in Europe and the United States and the demand for
oil substitute gas power generation.
Therefore, the logic of rising oil prices, driven by the expectation of overall demand growth, remains
.

The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center predicts that oil prices are still likely
to rise in the short term.
The International Energy Agency expects global crude oil demand to rise sharply by 1.
6 million b/d
in October.
On the supply side, oil producers are unlikely to adjust their production plans in the short term, and OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, still hopes to make huge profits
before the massive increase in U.
S.
shale oil production and the release of Iranian crude oil on the market.

All in all, the relative certainty of the current market is that supply is relatively weak, demand is strong, and policy will not change in the short term, many companies will inevitably experience a painful period of transformation, and oil prices and overall energy prices are expected to remain strong
.

Enterprise:

Make estimates and judgments in advance and do a good job of regional supply

During the epidemic, the trend of international oil prices fluctuating has impressed many institutions and investors
.

As a company, how should we deal with the ups and downs of oil prices? "Professionals of many enterprises can make estimates and judgments in advance according to international oil prices, and predict that when oil prices rise sharply, enterprises that have their own oil depots or lease oil depots can also stock up on some oil
in advance.
" An industry insider revealed to reporters
.

"From the perspective of industry rules, entering the third quarter is the peak season for refined oil sales
.
" Guangdong petroleum related people said frankly that on the one hand, the climax of travel driven by summer and autumn tourism will drive gasoline demand, on the other hand, the logistics industry will generally enter the peak season in the second half of the year will also drive the growth
of diesel demand.
In order to ensure regional supply, Guangdong Petrochemical's subordinate gas stations have adopted comprehensive measures such as increasing inventory in advance, optimizing logistics and distribution routes, and improving on-site refueling efficiency to meet the supply demand
of Guangdong refined oil.

In the face of today's high oil prices, many car owners have said that they want to reduce the number of
trips.
Ms Wong, a citizen, said that if it is convenient to go out by subway or bus, she will choose a more economical mode of public travel
.