On October 10, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products may usher in the first stranded in the year

In this cycle (since September 21), the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes have once again pushed up market concerns about the macroeconomic and oil demand outlook, and the price of Brent crude oil futures once fell below $85 / barrel, but then OPEC+ announced a sharp production cut to exacerbate oil supply tight expectations, and crude oil prices regained support
.
Since October, the international crude oil futures price has achieved "five consecutive increases", the negative range of the average price change rate of the basket of crude oil has narrowed significantly, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil price adjustment at 24:00 on October 10 will be stranded
for the first time this year.

On September 21, the Fed announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, which is the third consecutive 75 basis point
increase in the Fed this year.

In September, both European and American central banks raised interest rates sharply, putting pressure
on the global economy.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva said on October 6 that the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast
three times since October last year.
She revealed that in the World Economic Outlook report, which will be updated next week, the IMF will once again lower its economic growth forecast for
next year.

Factors such as weak oil demand caused by macroeconomic pressure and a stronger dollar index caused oil prices to fall, and in late September, Brent and WTI crude oil futures fell below the $85/b and $80/b marks
.

In the face of a continuous decline in oil prices, the market expected OPEC+ to "raise prices", and this expectation was subsequently confirmed
.
On October 5, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Meeting decided to cut production sharply from November this year, reducing monthly production by an average of 2 million barrels
per day on the basis of August production.
The average daily production reduction of 2 million barrels has provided a relatively solid support
for crude oil prices.

Affected by OPEC+ production cuts and other favorable factors, from October 3 to 7, international oil prices achieved "five consecutive increases", and the cumulative increase of the main contracts of Brent and WTI crude oil futures reached 11.
3% and 16.
5%
respectively.

The average price change rate of the basket of crude oil in this cycle continues to run in the negative range, but the international oil price has strengthened again, so that the negative range of the crude oil change rate has narrowed significantly, and the data released by the Xinhua News Agency oil price system shows that the average price change rate of the package of crude oil on October 7 is -2.
32%, and considering the impact of exchange rate changes, it is expected that at 24:00 on October 10, the domestic refined oil price adjustment will be stranded
.

Chart: The average rate of change in the price of crude oil in the basket since the release of the Xinhua oil price system for the current cycle

Source: China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-Gas System)

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil products has gone through 18 price adjustment windows, which is 11 up and 7 down, and after the rise and fall are offset, the cumulative domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 1305 yuan and 1255 yuan
per ton respectively.

Looking ahead, the demand for heating oil and natural gas switching to oil is expected to increase due to the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere and the difficulty of natural gas prices, while the OPEC+ production reduction decision reinforces the expectation of tight supply, and the fundamentals of the oil market have strengthened
.
However, the oil market bearish factors still exist, on the one hand, the market is still worried about the macroeconomic outlook, on the other hand, the actual output of OPEC+ oil-producing countries is below the quota, and the actual production reduction may be significantly lower than 2 million barrels / day
.
On the whole, it is expected that international oil prices will fluctuate
strongly in the short term.