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OPEC on Tuesday (April 12) cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2022 by nearly 500,000 b/d due to lower global economic growth expectations due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resumption of coronavirus lockdowns
in China.
In its closely watched monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 3.
67 million b/d this year, down 480,000 b/d from last month's growth forecast of 4.
15 million b/d, largely to reflect OPEC's downwardly revised expectations
for economic growth.
Total oil demand for 2022 is now expected to average 100.
5 million b/d, down from 100.
91 million b/d
expected in the March report.
To be sure, OPEC already said in March that its estimates of global oil demand growth "are still being evaluated" "until more clarity.
"
Last month's report was the first OPEC to release since the Russia-Ukraine crisis
.
Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, OPEC's downward revision of global economic growth and oil demand growth in the April report is due to "recent geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe" and soaring
global inflation, although OPEC did not specifically mention it in its two reports.
OPEC cut its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 3.
9% from 4.
2%
in the previous month.
OPEC said, "This takes into account the impact of the conflict in Eastern Europe and the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and the risk is skewed to the downside
.
" As a result, estimates of oil demand growth have been revised down by 480,000 b/d, "due to geopolitical developments and the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in China, which has led to a decline
in global GDP.
" ”
OPEC estimates that in the first quarter of 2022, global oil demand increased by nearly 5 million b/d year-on-year
as most countries eased pandemic-related restrictions.
"However, due to recent geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe, both the second and third quarters of 2022 are expected to grow by 3.
5 million b/d
year-on-year," OPEC said.
”
