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Foreign news on June 18, OPEC sources said that OPEC officials learned from industry experts that despite rising oil prices, U.
S.
oil production growth in 2021 may still be limited, which makes OPEC's shale oil production likely to be strong in 2022 Have greater power to manage the market in the short term before growth
.
On Tuesday, OPEC Economic Committee (ECB) officials and other representatives attended a meeting where the source said the main discussion was about US oil production .
On Thursday, OPEC heard more forecasters' outlook for 2021 and 2022 in another meeting .
Although the market generally believes that the growth of US crude oil supply this year is limited, an industry source said that the growth of crude oil supply in 2022 is estimated to be between 500,000 barrels per day and 1.
3 million barrels per day .
"The general view of shale oil is that as oil prices rise, production will rebound, but not soon," said a source who provided OPEC forecasts .
U.
S.
shale oil production usually responds quickly to price signals.
This week, U.
S.
crude oil prices reached their highest level since October 2018, close to $73 per barrel .
But ECB said that US producers will still focus on capital discipline and investor returns rather than expanding supply .
"Provide investors with investment discipline and free cash flow," said an OPEC source who asked not to be named when summing up a key point of the meeting .
The ECB provides advice to OPEC member states, but does not formulate policies .
Two sources said that the report made at the meeting forecasted the outlook for US production .
This year's output will grow at a low rate of 200,000 barrels per day .
Another source said that this level of growth is the consensus of most reports this year .
If shale oil production does not rebound significantly, it will be easier for OPEC to manage the market
.
As demand recovers, OPEC is gradually lifting the record production limit set last year, and will meet on July 1 to decide on policy .
A source from the company that provided the forecast said: "It seems that the shale oil wizard will stay in the bottle .
" "OPEC and Saudi Arabia now have a lot of power .
" ***More pages will be produced in 2022.
Rock Oil***
The source said that at the Thursday technical meeting, OPEC considered a series of organization's forecasts, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), Argus (Argus Media), U.
S.
Energy Information Agency (EIA), Wood Mackenzie ( Wood MacKenzie), IHS, Energy Intelligence and Energy Aspects
.
An OPEC source said that the above estimates are not those adopted by OPEC.
Another OPEC source said that although capital constraints are clearly still a priority for US producers, the production outlook is still unclear
.
OPEC itself has been predicting a limited rebound in shale oil production this year, as do US producers themselves
.
OPEC’s latest forecast is that U.
S.
crude oil production in 2021 will fall by 120,000 barrels per day to 11.
2 million barrels per day, and tight oil (another shale oil) production will fall by 140,000 barrels per day to 7.
15 million barrels per day.
/Day
.
The organization continues to pay close attention to the prospects of U.
S.
oil supply
.
Due to the decline in oil prices from 2014 to 2016 and the global oversupply caused in part by rising US production, OPEC oil producing countries are in trouble
.
In 2014, U.
S.
oil production increased by 1.
5 million barrels per day
.
S.
oil production growth in 2021 may still be limited, which makes OPEC's shale oil production likely to be strong in 2022 Have greater power to manage the market in the short term before growth
.
On Tuesday, OPEC Economic Committee (ECB) officials and other representatives attended a meeting where the source said the main discussion was about US oil production .
On Thursday, OPEC heard more forecasters' outlook for 2021 and 2022 in another meeting .
Although the market generally believes that the growth of US crude oil supply this year is limited, an industry source said that the growth of crude oil supply in 2022 is estimated to be between 500,000 barrels per day and 1.
3 million barrels per day .
"The general view of shale oil is that as oil prices rise, production will rebound, but not soon," said a source who provided OPEC forecasts .
U.
S.
shale oil production usually responds quickly to price signals.
This week, U.
S.
crude oil prices reached their highest level since October 2018, close to $73 per barrel .
But ECB said that US producers will still focus on capital discipline and investor returns rather than expanding supply .
"Provide investors with investment discipline and free cash flow," said an OPEC source who asked not to be named when summing up a key point of the meeting .
The ECB provides advice to OPEC member states, but does not formulate policies .
Two sources said that the report made at the meeting forecasted the outlook for US production .
This year's output will grow at a low rate of 200,000 barrels per day .
Another source said that this level of growth is the consensus of most reports this year .
If shale oil production does not rebound significantly, it will be easier for OPEC to manage the market
.
As demand recovers, OPEC is gradually lifting the record production limit set last year, and will meet on July 1 to decide on policy .
A source from the company that provided the forecast said: "It seems that the shale oil wizard will stay in the bottle .
" "OPEC and Saudi Arabia now have a lot of power .
" ***More pages will be produced in 2022.
Rock Oil***
The source said that at the Thursday technical meeting, OPEC considered a series of organization's forecasts, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), Argus (Argus Media), U.
S.
Energy Information Agency (EIA), Wood Mackenzie ( Wood MacKenzie), IHS, Energy Intelligence and Energy Aspects
.
An OPEC source said that the above estimates are not those adopted by OPEC.
Another OPEC source said that although capital constraints are clearly still a priority for US producers, the production outlook is still unclear
.
OPEC itself has been predicting a limited rebound in shale oil production this year, as do US producers themselves
.
OPEC’s latest forecast is that U.
S.
crude oil production in 2021 will fall by 120,000 barrels per day to 11.
2 million barrels per day, and tight oil (another shale oil) production will fall by 140,000 barrels per day to 7.
15 million barrels per day.
/Day
.
The organization continues to pay close attention to the prospects of U.
S.
oil supply
.
Due to the decline in oil prices from 2014 to 2016 and the global oversupply caused in part by rising US production, OPEC oil producing countries are in trouble
.
In 2014, U.
S.
oil production increased by 1.
5 million barrels per day
.