Overseas diesel still maintains a tight pattern Fuel oil fluctuates with the strength of oil prices

On December 30, the main contract of fuel oil futures fluctuated strongly, reaching as high as 2771 yuan
.
As of press time, the main contract of fuel oil was reported at 2736 yuan, up 0.
70%.

The main force of fuel oil futures rose slightly by 0.
70%, how should relevant institutions evaluate the future market?

CP International Futures: Fuel oil supply is relatively loose

In the international market, fuel oil demand has gradually entered the off-season, and Christmas to the Spring Festival is generally the off-season for the shipping industry, and the demand for marine oil is not good
.
However, extreme weather in many places such as the United States, heating oil has some support
.
Domestically, the current market demand for refined oil has picked up, but it is weaker than in previous years, the profit of heavy oil secondary processing has always been average, and the supply of fuel oil is relatively loose
.
Although the fundamental information is bearish, the price of crude oil is rising
.

CCB Futures: The unilateral price of fuel oil mainly follows the strong operation of oil price shocks

From the perspective of fuel oil itself, the main driver of the market is still continuing, the high-sulfur end of Russia's oil exports in November continued to remain high, and the short-term high-sulfur supply remained high
.
In the medium term, Russia's oil exports will fall marginally, tightening the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil, while the problem of tight low-sulfur supply will gradually be solved, and the high-low sulfur price spread is expected to narrow
.
The unilateral price of fuel oil mainly follows the strong fluctuation of oil prices
.

Huatai Futures: short-term dip long LU or FU main contract

At present, the overseas diesel market still maintains a tight pattern, and the cracking spread of Singapore's 10ppm diesel to Brent is currently at a high level of US$32.
63/barrel, more than US$20/barrel higher than
the same period last year.
At the same time, the premium of diesel to low-sulfur fuel oil has also exceeded the level of $300/ton, and in this environment, some low-sulfur fuel oil components are diverted to the diesel market, forming a certain support
for the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that although the height is not as high as diesel, Singapore's gasoline cracking spread has also shown a volatile rebound trend recently, and the catalytic cracking profit of refineries in Asia has been boosted, and the increase in the load of the plant will marginally tighten the supply
of marine low-sulfur fuel oil.
Although we mentioned in our previous report that the low-sulfur oil market may face pressure to launch new capacity next year, it is expected that the short-term market structure will be relatively stable, while the reality of domestic LU low warehouse receipts (the current warehouse receipt volume is 0) has formed additional support
for the plate.

Strategy: short-term dip multi-LU or FU main contract, should not chase up; In the medium term, focus on FU's unilateral dips and positive opportunities