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Energy prices in the international market have recently retreated, with crude oil at $98 per barrel, down more than 1% weekly, and Brent crude oil down more than 2% on a weekly basis, which also exerted downward pressure
on aluminum prices.
The dollar index rose above
100.
However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has been repeated, the European natural gas problem is far-reaching, difficult to solve in the short term, and the support of the aluminum market is still there
.
Recently, the domestic epidemic situation is grim, and many cities have been closed and controlled, and the impact on the aluminum industry is mainly concentrated in logistics and processing enterprises to reduce production
.
Processing enterprises in Henan experienced large-scale production reduction and procurement decreased
.
In addition, from March 31 to April 7, due to the severe impact of the epidemic on logistics and the reduction in downstream procurement, the in-plant inventory of the smelters in the sample totaled 110,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons
from the previous week.
It is still difficult to enter and exit the warehouse in Wuxi, and the national electrolytic aluminum community warehouse increased by 13,000 tons
against the season.
In terms of spot, East China, including Wuxi, has basically stagnated in and out of warehouse and logistics spot transactions, and there is no market for price
.
Gongyi was affected by the concentrated production reduction and the trading was not good
.
In contrast, the Foshan area is relatively better transacted
.
From the perspective of the aluminum rod market, the quotation of processing fees in Nanchang and Foshan was raised, but the market acceptance was not high, and Wuxi continued to be weak.
In terms of inventory, overseas production was reduced by 870,000 tons, and the restart under the current electricity price situation was postponed at least until the third quarter
of 2022.
And it is expected that there will still be 100,000-200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity facing the risk
of production reduction this year.
LME inventories continued to fall to 615,000 tons, the weekly increase of warehouse receipts increased by 18,000 tons, the trade premium between Europe and the United States continued to rise, supply concerns lingered, and Europe's extremely low inventories limited the extent of LME aluminum price pullback, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure of overseas squeezes in the later period
.
Overall, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is repeated, energy shortages are difficult to solve in the short term, overseas reported inventories continue to decline, premiums continue to rise, supply and demand patterns continue to be tight, and LME aluminum prices are strong and tough
under the support of extremely low inventories in Western Europe.
The domestic epidemic affected the expansion of consumption, the postponement of the peak season, and the pace of resumption of production accelerated, but the lockdown also had a very significant impact on logistics, with obvious inventories increasing slightly against the season, refinery resumption and factory warehouse accumulation increasing the pressure of selling and preserving value, and aluminum prices falling
.
The pattern of external strength and internal weakness pays attention to the inflection point of the development of the epidemic and the inflection point
of spot procurement enthusiasm.
