Overseas supply uncertainty still exists The aluminum market is still under pressure in the short term

At present, the domestic epidemic has "covered" the real changes in the social treasury, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will remain weak in volatility before the epidemic has not improved, but the space below is also limited
.
It is recommended to pay close attention to factors such as the domestic epidemic, changes in the social treasury, and the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine
.

On the macro front, the Fed minutes hinted at an acceleration in interest rate hikes and the start of balance sheet reduction, putting pressure on the downward trend
of the colored sector.
The situation in overseas Russia and Ukraine is still repeated, the sanctions on aluminum are also continuing, overseas supply is still uncertain, the current natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is still operating, the market's sensitivity to the energy crisis has decreased, and the marginal price of aluminum has weakened
.

Domestically, yesterday's market rumors that Rusal aluminum ingots have partially cleared customs into China, while the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan and other regions in China has accelerated, and the epidemic still puts pressure on demand, and spot stocks maintain a discount pattern
.
The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises fell again, and social inventory continued to increase
from last week due to blocked shipments.

In terms of inventory, as of April 8, 2022, the total inventory of the previous period was 307,420 tons, an increase of 1,615 tons from last week, and Wuxi contributed the main increment, which was affected by the epidemic, transportation was blocked, warehouses could not pick up goods normally, and the accumulation phenomenon was obvious
.

Overall, the current marginal impact of Russia and Ukraine has declined, the domestic epidemic has been consumer demand, the resumption of production continues to accelerate, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will be under pressure
.