Photovoltaic silicon material prices hit a new high in the past ten years

　　Recently, the price of domestic photovoltaic silicon (polysilicon) has been rising steadily, reaching a maximum of 300,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 250% from the beginning of 2021 and a new high in the past 10 years
.

　　On July 6, the latest data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that the domestic single crystal re-feeding price was between 288,000 and 300,000 yuan, and the average transaction price was 291,600 yuan, a week-on-week increase of 1.
85%; The price of dense material is between 286,000 and 298,000 yuan, and the average transaction price is 289,600 yuan, a week-on-week increase of 1.
9%
.

　　From the perspective of production enterprises, the long-term orders of various silicon material enterprises have basically been signed in July, and some orders have even been overbooked until early August, and the mainstream quotations are mostly 288,000 to 296,000 yuan
.
There are also a small number of scattered orders sold at relatively high prices, with prices ranging from 296,000 to 300,000 yuan
.

　　According to industry insiders, the supply of domestic silicon material market has been limited due to the recent shutdown and less-than-expected production expansion due to emergencies, while the downstream photovoltaic industry has become more prosperous
.
The silicon material market is in a situation of extreme supply shortage, driving prices to continue to rise
.
In the short term, the supply of silicon materials is still expected to decrease, and prices are expected to continue to rise
.
However, with the release of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance equipment in the later period, the tight supply situation in the silicon material market is expected to ease, and the price may be lowered, but the overall operation will remain high
.

　　From the perspective of demand, in February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Planning and Layout Plan for Large-scale Wind Power and Photovoltaic Bases in Key Areas of Gobi, Desert and Desert", which proposed that by 2030, the total installed capacity will be about 455 million.
kilowatts
.
Subsequently, the large installed capacity led by the five major power generation central enterprises successively announced the wind and solar installation targets in 2022, and the demand for photovoltaic installations suppressed in 2021 was released
.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to May, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in China was 23.
71GW, a year-on-year increase of 41.
34%
.
Among them, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in May was 6.
83GW, an increase of 139.
25% year-on-year, and continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend
.

　　From the perspective of the supply side, in June, the total domestic supply of polysilicon materials declined due to power cuts or unplanned production shutdowns in June.
The lack of supply caused by temporary production cuts led to an increase in urgent orders and loose orders in the short term, which exacerbated the shortage of polysilicon materials
.
According to the latest production schedules of various companies, the shortage of silicon material will continue in July
.
It is estimated that the domestic production of silicon materials in July will be about 58,000 tons, a decrease of about 3,200 tons or about 5% from the previous month
.

　　It is understood that in July, Xinjiang GCL, Dongfang Hope, Tianhong Ruike and other enterprises planned to reduce production or overhaul, and the reduction of silicon material totaled about 6,700 tons
.
During the same period, four companies, GCL Technology, Baotou Xinte, Yunnan Tongwei, and Asia Silicon Industry, released a small amount of production capacity expansion.
In addition, the output of individual companies fluctuated normally, and the total increase in silicon material was about 3,500 tons
.
Including imports, it is estimated that the supply of silicon material in the domestic market in July is about 65,000 tons, which can only meet the output of about 24.
5GW of silicon wafers.
larger gap
.

　　"The investment threshold for silicon materials and the added value of technology are relatively high, so the speed of production expansion cannot keep up with the middle and lower reaches
.
" People in the photovoltaic industry said that the underlying reason for the price increase of silicon materials is that the speed of expansion of the middle and lower reaches exceeds that of the upstream silicon materials.
, it is expected that the price of silicon material will rise in the short term
.

　　However, with the release of new production capacity of silicon materials in the later period, the tight supply and demand situation in the market is expected to improve
.

　　The Everbright Securities Research Report pointed out that five companies plan to overhaul in July, and the overall supply of silicon materials in the third quarter may be lower than expected.
In the context of the continuation of the global photovoltaic demand boom driven by overseas markets, the price of silicon materials will remain high
.
However, with the new production capacity entering the market in the third quarter and the resumption of production of maintenance equipment, it is expected that the tight supply and demand of silicon materials will ease in the fourth quarter of this year, and the price may be lowered
.