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In the first half of 2020, the epidemic raged, and the various slumps in the bulk commodity and financial markets were endless.
LDPE
Recently, due to delays in the maintenance of Maoming Petrochemical's equipment and high terminal prices, LDPE has changed its momentum from the previous period, and prices have gradually fallen.
Throughout the ten-year price data from 2011 to 2020, LDPE prices have risen mainly in four stages: Stage 1: In 2011, due to a substantial increase in imports, and after the demand for commodities continued to rise in 2010, terminal processing was under pressure.
The second stage: With the fall in LDPE prices, terminal factory orders have increased profits, and relatively low prices have stimulated market traders and downstream factories to actively cover their positions; at the same time, the import arbitrage window has been narrowed or even upside down, the supply and demand relationship has improved, and the LDPE market has opened up a new dimension.
In the third stage, the supply-demand relationship is also dominated and coordinated with the recovery of international crude oil prices.
In the fourth stage, after Shenhua Yulin high-pressure production was put into operation, Shenhua Xinjiang high-pressure equipment followed closely.
Back to 2020, under the background of public health incidents, China's LDPE market was exhausted in the first quarter, especially under the background of poor transportation, unlimited market decline, and distant demand.
Prices are high, factory processing profits have dropped sharply, some of the pre-orders have already lost or are close to the edge of loss, and the price difference with LLDPE has reached 3000-4000 yuan/ton.
As for the future of LDPE, at present, the overall supply is still limited, which means that before New Year's Day, the probability of a sharp fall in LDPE is unlikely (unless the imported sources are concentrated in Hong Kong or the international capacity is improved), but the demand has fallen under the suppression of high prices.
(Keyword: LDPE)
