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Commodities fluctuated as a whole on March 10, and the Wenhua Commodity Index finally closed down 0.
Polypropylene
【Core Thinking】
For polypropylene, there are the following thoughts:
The overall performance of polypropylene in the chemical sector is still outstanding.
There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of polypropylene.
In addition, although demand is affected by the epidemic and the start-up load is slow to recover, rigid demand is still there.
Then, the current futures price has reached a high position of 7145, and the chemical sector is relatively strong.
The explosion occurred in Lotte South Korea, but according to our calculations, the impact on the domestic supply of polypropylene and propylene is not great.
At present, futures will fluctuate greatly due to macro events such as the epidemic.
[Focus on: Basis is significantly stronger?]
At present, the basis of futures is significantly stronger, today to -50, mainly due to the following reasons:
The upstream has a strong willingness to hold up prices in the near future, which has a certain supporting effect on prices.
Traders in the market’s selling-period buying behaviors are doing strong basis transactions, and some risk-free arbitrage opportunities may be available, and they are more willing to accept low-priced goods.
Although speculative demand in the downstream has decreased, but there is still rigid demand for procurement, and the overall inventory positive feedback has been realized.
(Keyword: Polypropylene)