Primary aluminum inventory growth limits the upward momentum of aluminum prices

On Wednesday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, with the highest 14615 yuan / ton and the lowest 14490 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14550 yuan / ton, down 0.
14% from the previous trading day's closing price; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1798.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
28%
per day.

Market focus: (1) At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US FOMC will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by the Fed's Powell, and the market expects the Fed to continue to reiterate its ultra-loose stance
.
(2) China's imported bauxite consumption in August 2020 was about 9.
44 million tons, an increase of 9.
26% month-on-month and 14.
70%
year-on-year.
From January to August this year, China's imported bauxite consumption totaled about 69.
3 million tons, an increase of 18.
76%
over the same period last year.

Spot analysis: On September 16, spot A00 aluminum reported 14660-14700 yuan / ton, the average price was 14680 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders shipped at a good price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was acceptable, and the transaction activity was acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 138949 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 5904 tons; On September 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1513925 tons, a daily decrease of 2,575 tons, a decline of 19 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract were 78449 lots, minus 790 lots per day, short positions were 89737 lots, daily minus 1211 lots, net short positions were 11288 lots, daily minus 421 lots, long and short were reduced, net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On September 16, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 fell slightly
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is gradually released, it is expected that production will continue to expand in September, and the increase in output is estimated to be greater than consumption, and domestic primary aluminum inventories have shown a slight growth trend, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, and the import window is in a preliminary closed state, which will gradually inhibit the inflow of overseas goods; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod inventory still continues to degrade, currently reaching the low level of the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in the future market demand, which is expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum companies to rise, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, and there is resistance above 14700, which is expected to be strong in the short term
.