Propylene market is difficult to rise in the short term

In March, the propylene market fell sharply, and the market price in Northeast China and other places fell below 8,000 yuan (ton price, the same below)
.

In late March, the market showed signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, but industry insiders believe that the cost of propylene raw materials is insufficient, the demand remains weak, the supply side is abundant, and the foundation for the rise of the propylene market is not strong

The market fell deeply and lost across the board

The market fell deeply, the whole line lost money, the market fell deeply, and the whole line lost money

Since March 9, in less than half a month, the propylene market has dropped from 9,100 yuan to 8,000 yuan, a drop of 1,110 yuan
.

Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that due to the large increase in crude oil prices, the prices of raw materials naphtha, methanol and propane rose rapidly, but the increase was difficult to transmit to propylene and downstream terminal industries, and various propylene processes were in a state of loss.

Not only that, the recent outbreak of new coronary pneumonia has concentrated in many places, and the situation in Shandong, Northeast China and other regions, the main propylene producing areas, is not optimistic
.

With the strengthening and upgrading of epidemic control in many places, logistics and transportation are obviously limited, the transit cycle is prolonged, and the transportation capacity is tight

Raw material support remains weak

Raw material support remains weak Raw material support remains weak

Naphtha had previously risen sharply with international crude oil prices
.

But as crude oil prices fell, so did naphtha prices

Looking at the market outlook, the international crude oil is running at a high level, but the domestic guidance is weak.
At present, the terminal demand is weak and difficult to change, and there is no substantial positive improvement in the market
.

The current round of epidemic has suppressed the demand for refined oil, and the refineries are operating at low load and intend to reduce the price of shipments

Meng Xianxing, deputy director of Shandong Chemical Industry Research Institute, introduced that the methanol market, another raw material of propylene, has recently demonstrated a "V"-shaped trend
.

As of March 24, the market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu rose 1.

　　At present, the methanol supply side is intertwined
.

Parking devices include Jingmen Yingde, Shanxi Jinfeng, Shanxi Coal Tianyuan, Shanxi Orchid and other enterprises; early parking and production reduction devices such as Qitaihe Yidaxin, Jingmen Yingde, Chongqing Cabelle, and Jiuyuan Chemical have resumed production.

　　From the perspective of the raw material propane market, the price first decreased and then increased, and the mood of downstream replenishment has improved.
Under the positive support, refineries are mostly pushing up, and the market price is on the strong side
.

The downstream is conflicted with the high-priced supply, mostly choosing low-level replenishment, and the propane market price may be consolidating at a high level

　　Demand support is difficult to strengthen

　Demand support is difficult to strengthen　Demand support is difficult to strengthen

　　From the perspective of downstream polypropylene, the fourth line of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the new expansion line of Zhenhai Refinery have been put into operation, and the supply in some areas has increased
.
However, the concentration of maintenance and load reduction of production enterprises can hedge the supply increase brought by some new installations
.
Ding Shubing, vice president of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group, believes that the current polypropylene market price fluctuates forward
.
International crude oil rose sharply at the close.
In addition, domestic production companies fell and overhauled, and inventories fell significantly.
Polypropylene futures opened higher and rose, and the spot market kept up
.

　　According to the recent trend of construction starts, Sinopec production enterprises have seen a significant decline in the start of construction, once below 70%, which is a new low in recent years
.
Although the decline in the start-up load of PetroChina is not as obvious as that of Sinopec, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year
.
Weekly production of polypropylene has fallen for six consecutive weeks, falling below 300,000 tons to 294,700 tons, the lowest in nearly 20 weeks
.

　　Traders believe that the downstream domestic propylene oxide market price rebounded recently
.
Under the control of all parties, the game on the supply and demand side basically maintains a weak balance.
With the partial follow-up of polyether orders, the market sentiment has rebounded slightly, the balance situation has been broken, and the negative pressure on the supply side can be controlled, and the offer has continued to rise
.
However, at present, the new polyether orders have faded and fallen, showing a slight stalemate
.
Due to the overhaul of the Shandong plant, the octanol market has strengthened the trading atmosphere, but the benefits for raw materials are limited
.

　　In the later period, with the decline of the propylene market, the main downstream profitability will improve
.
However, some downstream chemical plants are expected to be overhauled in the short-term, and the downstream may be based on the market
.