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On Thursday, the PVC price index was at 8,483 yuan/ton, down 39% from the high of 14,000 yuan/ton on October 11, 2021, and 19%
higher than the average of 7,150 yuan/ton since April 5, 2017.
PVC has fluctuated greatly in the past two months, and the deviation of PVC from the historical average has decreased, and the current price is at a slightly higher historical level
.
From a macro perspective, the RRR reduction on December 15, 2021 is the second comprehensive RRR reduction by the central bank in 2021 after July 15, releasing a total of about 1.
2 trillion yuan
of long-term funds.
On December 20, 2021, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce a 1-year LPR of 3.
8%, the first rate cut since April 20, 2020, and a decrease of 0.
05%
compared to April 20, 2020.
The interest rate cut and the RRR cut in December formed a "double reduction" combination fist, and monetary policy was strengthened
.
Monetary policy is favorable to land, and it takes time to transmit from the adjustment of monetary policy to the real economy, and the 5-year LPR mainly affects the mortgage interest rate, this quotation remains unchanged, or release a signal
that the real estate insists on stable regulation.
In the short term, the macro impact on PVC is relatively neutral
.
On December 23, 2021, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest calcium carbide was 4,700 yuan / ton, 40% higher than the average value of 3,358 yuan / ton since 2018, and the price of calcium carbide was at a moderately high level
.
The cost of PVC production from purchased calcium carbide in Northwest China is 7719 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to a plate price of 8019 yuan / ton
.
On the supply and demand side, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises gradually rose from 67% in mid-October to 79% on November 26, and the operating rate of PVC production enterprises gradually decreased in the past three weeks, and the operating rate of production enterprises fell to 76% on December 17, while the terminal operating rate since mid-October fell first and then rose, and the terminal operating rate in the past three weeks basically remained at 62%.
Social inventory, since mid-October 2021 in an oscillating downward pattern, while the inventory decline rate is lower than the same period in 2019 and 2018, on December 17, 2021, PVC inventory is 4% lower than the same period in 2020, 60% higher than the same period in 2019, and overall inventory is higher than the same period
before the epidemic.
Overall, the macro and fundamental impact is temporarily neutral, due to the lack of substantial positive drive, PVC trend recovery pressure is greater, short-term or maintain a wide range of oscillation pattern
.
