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Since September, the PVC market has risen first and then fallen, the price center of gravity has shifted slightly, the changes in raw materials have shown certain differences, calcium carbide and VCM shocks have fallen slightly, ethylene has risen, the overall loss of calcium carbide PVC has not changed much, and ethylene profit PVC has gradually turned into a loss
.
In the later stage, there is little room for raw material calcium carbide to continue to explore, and PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is expected that the overall loss of the industry is difficult to change
.
Since September, the domestic PVC market has shown a volatile trend, with prices rising first and then falling, and the price center of gravity has moved
slightly lower than in August.
In terms of raw materials, due to different processes, there are still certain differences in the profits of different types of enterprises, and the loss degree of calcium carbide PVC, which accounts for the highest proportion, has not changed much
.
On the supply side, PVC production decreased
slightly this week.
As of September 22, according to Longzhong information data, the overall operating rate of PVC was 75.
59%, a decrease of 1.
89% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5.
63%.
Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method decreased by 2.
69% to 75.
04%, and the operating rate of ethylene method increased by 0.
83% to 77.
52%.
The latest weekly production is 420,800 tons
.
On the demand side, the PVC downstream operating rate was basically stable this week, and demand was still weak
.
As of September 22, the profile enterprises surveyed by Longzhong have started about 4-6%, and the plate starts at 4-8%.
The current terminal demand performance is weak, which is a drag
on PVC demand.
The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is low, and individual enterprises take advantage of the low to replenish inventory
.
In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies such as guaranteeing the delivery of
buildings on the terminal.
In terms of costs, calcium carbide prices and ethylene prices fell
this week.
As of September 23, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 3725 yuan / ton, down 1.
32% from September 16; The price of calcium carbide in East China was 4250 yuan / ton, down 1.
16% from September 16; The price of calcium carbide in South China was 4,300 yuan / ton, down 1.
15%
from September 16.
As of September 22, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price was 941 US dollars / ton, down 3.
09%
from September 15.
At present, the loss of the external calcium carbide process is serious, and the cost side has a strong
support for the price of PVC.
In terms of inventory, PVC social stocks increased sharply this week, and the latest PVC social stocks of Longzhong statistics were 372,000 tons, an increase of 4.
20% month-on-month and 112.
69%
year-on-year.
On the whole, the short-term PVC fundamentals are neutral and bearish
.
From the valuation point of view, the current PVC loss is more serious, and the cost support is strong
.
From the perspective of supply and demand structure, short-term PVC demand is still relatively weak, supply has rebounded at a low level, inventory has increased significantly, and the impact on prices is bearish
.
