PVC main shock higher short-term may have rebound requirements

News: PVC social inventory last week decreased by 5.
49% month-on-month, an increase of 17.
01% year-on-year, for East China, it decreased by 4.
55% month-on-month and increased by 45.
54% year-on-year, and South China decreased by 10.
71% month-on-month and 45.
65%
year-on-year.
East China stocks are 147,000 tons, South China 25,000 tons
.

The operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 74.
72%, down 0.
21% from last week and 4.
86%
from last year.
Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method is 75.
12%, and the operating rate of ethylene method is 78.
76%.

Spot market: Hebei spot price narrow adjustment, market quotation increased by
20-30 yuan / ton.
The price of 5-type material including tax is delivered at 6490-6550 yuan / ton, and the price of Inner Mongolian goods is 6280-6330 yuan / ton
.
The market price of Qilu Chemical City was adjusted in a narrow range, the price of calcium carbide type 5 was 6660 yuan / ton (Xinfa excluding tax 6230, Tianye excluding tax 6210 yuan / ton), the price of ethylene Qilu material S700 price excluding tax was 6560 yuan / ton, and the quotation of S1000 was 6410 yuan / ton
excluding tax.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 2953 lots, intraday -166 lots, in the historical high area
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 124654 lots, +2112 lots, short positions are 103858 lots, +3079 lots, and the net position is 20796 lots, net long decrease
.

Summary: The PVC spot market is well supplied, the social inventory is still higher than the same period of previous years, and the pressure of calcium carbide transportation has eased, the market supply is sufficient, and the price has weakened
.
The cost support for PVC weakened, Taiwan lowered its November shipping schedule quotation, and on October 30, China canceled anti-dumping to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, all of which are negative for PVC
.
However, the recent accident in Inner Mongolia Sanlian Chemical is expected to lead to production suspension to PVC, PVC downstream products imports decreased, exports increased also supported prices
.
Short-term PVC may have the requirement of rebound, operationally, it is recommended that investors can set a take profit in their hands and hold
it cautiously.