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Last week, the PVC futures market rushed back down, which was greatly affected by the peripheral market
.
The Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points with a high probability to curb its domestic inflation
.
However, the fundamentals of PVC itself have not changed much; Instead, there is an expectation
of marginal improvement in demand.
In the case of PVC loss, the low level is supported by costs, but the high level has hedging pressure, and the inventory is generally high
.
In this way, the PVC futures market will be bottomed in the form of range fluctuations
.
The bottom is fully formed or wait until after
the "twenties" in October.
Last week, the price of PVC domestic spot market rose first and then fell
.
At present, the spot market is general, the downstream inquiry is acceptable, the actual order follow-up is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is cautious, and the enthusiasm for taking goods downstream is not high
.
Up to now, the domestic PVC5 calcium carbide quotation range is mostly
around 6080-6650 yuan / ton.
In terms of crude oil, on September 15, international crude oil futures fell, and the settlement price of the main contract of U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures was $85.
10 / barrel, down $3.
38 or 3.
8%; The main contract for Brent crude futures settled at $90.
84 a barrel, down $3.
26 or 3.
5 percent
.
WTI crude fell nearly 4%, hitting a one-week low, as the likely sharp Fed rate hike at the macro level pushed the dollar back stronger, depressing oil price valuations, and expectations of a global recession continued to weigh on oil prices
.
In terms of calcium carbide, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell
slightly last week.
The average ex-factory price of mainstream manufacturers in Northwest calcium carbide fell from 3700 yuan / ton to 3616.
67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.
25%.
The upstream blue charcoal price is consolidating at a low level, the cost support is general, the downstream PVC market is consolidating at a low level, and the demand for calcium carbide is general
.
In terms of supply and demand, calcium carbide enterprises are still losing money, and the cost pressure is greater
.
In addition, the operating load ratio of PVC enterprises is still expected to increase, because there are not many
companies planning maintenance in the later stage.
At the same time, the start of PVC terminal products enterprises in film, granulation and other industries has improved slightly, but the start of pipes and profiles has not changed much
.
In the later stage, with the continuous landing of the "guaranteed delivery building" measures, the orders and starts of downstream product enterprises may have some support
.
At present, the demand in the PVC spot market is general, the market trading is light, the decline in futures affects the confidence of the spot market, and the downstream is cautious
.
The upcoming off-season or short-term drag on the market, but is expected to be part of
the bottom-hunting.
It may take quite some time
for the bottom to complete.
Keep an eye on news surface changes
.
