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Recently, the performance of PVC reality is weak, the negative feedback after demand is obvious, and the export transaction has also shown a certain marginal weakness
.
Although the supply side has increased maintenance, it is still only the beginning, and the overall load is still on the high
side.
Market sentiment has also weakened, and prices have shown a downward adjustment
.
On the macro front, the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting in early April believe that if inflation pressures fail to ease in the future, one or more interest rate hikes of 50 basis points (BP) may be required, and it is expected that the market will experience a process of accelerated Fed tightening in May-June, and overseas risk appetite will disturb the domestic commodity market atmosphere
.
On the demand side, the recent demand side performance is weak, from the sampling survey situation, many product companies in the past 2-3 weeks of the start load has shown a certain decline phenomenon, just demand has weakened, from the supply side data and social inventory data can reflect this
.
On the supply side, from the pre-sales and factory inventory data of sample enterprises on the supply side, the overall sales of upstream PVC enterprises in the past four weeks are neutral, the pre-sales volume of sample enterprises has decreased for four weeks, and the inventory of factories has also increased
slightly for four weeks.
In terms of inventory, from the inventory data of sample warehouses in East China and South China, PVC social inventory began to have a destocking inflection point from mid-March, and then continued to destock, due to weakening demand, the destocking began to slow down at the end of March, and inventory accumulated slightly in the week of April 8
.
East and South China social inventory data also prove that the impact of negative demand feedback is increasing
.
Overall, short-term demand post-positioning and the Fed's interest rate hike are expected to accelerate due to a downward adjustment in the spot market, but in the medium term, with the recovery of demand and the realization of supply-side centralized maintenance, the supply and demand side is still expected to
improve.
Therefore, the PVC market will continue to operate weakly in the short term and strong expectations in the medium term, focusing on changes in future demand
.
