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Recently, under the influence of the rise in international crude oil prices and the rebound of PVC futures after continuous bottoming, the price of PVC spot market has risen, the price of PVC production enterprises has risen steadily, and some PVC companies have said that their inventories are not high and their shipments are acceptable
.
However, the PVC market is still accumulating, the transaction has not shown a big improvement, the downstream is still in the off-season, most downstream products companies still maintain just demand-based, in the mood of buying up not buying down, the number of orders has increased
slightly.
In addition, domestic exports have declined after reaching a record high, mainly due to the current PVC industry is in the off-season of demand, and the demand in Asia, Europe and the United States is also shrinking
.
In terms of demand, up to now, as the price of raw material PVC continues to fall, the operating rate of PVC downstream sample enterprises has improved slightly, but it is still at a low level, basically remaining at about 50%, in addition, it is still in the demand off-season, the demand side is weak, and the downstream product enterprises receive goods is not high, basically maintaining the amount of 2-5 days
.
On the supply side, as of July 14, some domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced their load production, and individual PVC production enterprises have stopped operations, such as Shandong Dongyue, etc.
, and the overall start has declined, starting about 78.
84
%.
From the perspective of local starts, the operating rate of enterprises in North China is about 74.
5%, the operating rate of enterprises in Northwest China is about 82%, the operating rate of enterprises in East China is about 79.
36%, and the operating rate of enterprises in Southwest China is about 91.
25
%.
In terms of inventory, from the perspective of PVC social inventory, as of July 18, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased slightly, and the social inventory in East and South China was about 371,000 tons, an increase of 0.
27%
month-on-month.
Among them, the inventory of sample warehouses in East China is about 29.
8 tons, and the inventory of sample warehouses in South China is about
73,000 tons.
From the perspective of PVC enterprise inventory, as of July 18, due to the load reduction of some domestic PVC enterprises and the shutdown of individual enterprises, the inventory of domestic PVC sample production enterprises has decreased slightly, about 208,200 tons
.
On the whole, the current PVC price has risen under the influence of futures rise, but eventually will still return to the fundamentals, in the situation of oversupply, PVC market trend is difficult to say that it rises, so it is expected that the PVC market will maintain a rebound after the shock adjustment, basically maintained in the 6300-6800 range of
operation.
