PVC short-term demand is weak The market is more wait-and-see on the first day after the holiday

In terms of crude oil, the US snowstorm and severe cold weather have triggered market concerns about the suspension of production in the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil producing area, and geopolitical tensions have continued, and international oil prices have hit a new high
in more than seven years.
NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract 92.
31 up $2.
04 / barrel or 2.
26%; ICE oil futures 04 contract 93.
27 rose $2.
16 a barrel or 2.
37%.

China's INE crude oil futures are closed for the Spring Festival holiday
.

In terms of ethylene, the average price of ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia on February 4 was stable at 1,000 US dollars / ton; The average price of CFR Southeast Asia is 1015 US dollars / ton, stable
.

On the supply side, by the end of 2021, the effective production capacity of domestic PVC was 28.
35 million tons, and 2.
78 million tons of installations are planned to be put into operation in 2022, with a capacity growth rate of 9.
81%, much higher than the 4.
1%
in 2021.
Although market supply pressure still exists, it is still necessary to pay attention to the phased impact
of environmental protection and other factors on PVC supply.

In terms of demand, real estate has a greater impact on the demand for PVC, in 2021, the tightening of bank financing for housing enterprises has caused a decline in real estate investment, but to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry and a virtuous circle, coupled with a combination of prudent fiscal policies and RRR reductions, it will have a certain positive signal on the financing of housing enterprises, so it is expected that the real estate industry will improve in 2022, when the demand for PVC will also rise
.

In short, although the cost support of PVC has weakened and the supply pressure has risen, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected that PVC prices will show an oscillating trend in 2022, with an oscillation range of 7,000-10,000 yuan / ton
.