Refined oil consumption may "peak" in 2027 The analysis says it will even be advanced

In the production capacity layout, on the one hand, refined oil production and marketing enterprises must ensure the basic supply stability and avoid blindly expanding production capacity in the direction of "increase"; On the other hand, it is necessary to optimize and increase the new and optimize the product structure and technical path
.
On the sales side, gas stations should give full play to the advantages of outlets and explore innovative energy supply models
.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first 10 months of this year, China's new energy (4.
370, -0.
04, -0.
91%) vehicle sales were 5.
28 million units, with a market share of 24%.

This data has exceeded the development vision
of "by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles by 2025" proposed in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)".
Changes in the automotive industry market and technology are transmitted to the consumer field, and the first is the refined oil processing and sales enterprises
.

With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the reduction of fuel vehicles, the consumption space of refined oil is bound to be greatly compressed
.
In addition, benefiting from the advancement of energy-saving technology, the fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles has also shown a trend
of decreasing year by year.
It is foreseeable that refined oil consumption will continue to decline
after reaching saturation in the future.
According to the analysis of sales data in recent years, the peak of refined oil consumption will be around 2027, or even earlier
.

At present, although the "oil peak" has not yet arrived, it has accelerated its approach
.
For refined oil production and marketing enterprises, it is necessary to have a sense of urgency to reach the peak of oil, and it is necessary to scientifically plan as soon as possible according to market trends, make strategic adjustments, and accelerate the pace of
transformation.

On the production side, in recent years, "oil reduction and increase" has become the main transformation path
of the refining industry.
From the current market demand, although the consumption of refined oil has become increasingly saturated, there are still structural deficiencies in chemical products, especially some high-end and special chemical products still rely on imports
.
Dialectically, in refining products, although the consumption of ordinary gasoline and diesel will be gradually withdrawn, there will still be market demand
for special products such as lubricating oil and aviation coal in the future.
Therefore, the "reduction" of oil reduction and increase is not necessarily a complete exit; "Increase" does not mean rushing up
.

In the layout of production capacity, on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure the basic supply stability, focus on the international and domestic market environment and market segment demand, while ensuring the market supply of bulk basic chemicals, we must not blindly expand production capacity in the direction of "increase", causing new surplus; On the other hand, the key to "oil reduction and increase" is to optimize the product structure and technical path, break through a number of "stuck neck" technologies in view of the current shortcomings of high-end chemical products and the differentiated needs of new chemical materials, strengthen key technology research and development and industrialization, fill the domestic gap to replace imports, and achieve high-quality transformation
.

On the sales side, turning gas stations into energy stations and allowing new energy vehicles to "go out of the city and get down to the countryside" is not only the actual need for energy consumption change, but also an inevitable choice
for traditional oil companies to adapt to market changes.
In August this year, the Ministry of Transport and other four departments jointly issued the "Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure Along Highways", which proposed that by the end of 2025, a charging infrastructure network along highways will be basically formed to better meet the public's demand
for high-quality and diversified travel services.
Under the clear policy and market orientation, gas stations should give full play to the advantages of outlets, increase cooperation with power supply enterprises and transportation departments, and explore innovative energy supply models
.