Refining and chemical "involution" intensifies ethylene consumption will peak around 2030

During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, refining and chemical integration, ethane cracking, propane dehydrogenation, and coal-to-olefins projects have gathered together
.

On the one hand, large-scale new production capacity will be put into production one after another, and on the other hand, with the realization of the "carbon peak" goal, the consumption of petrochemical products will also peak

2020-2025 usher in the peak of capacity release

Qu Liang, a senior engineer at the China National Petroleum Corporation Planning Institute, pointed out
.

Since 2014, polyolefins have maintained a high level of return on investment, leading to a flood of domestic capital.
2020-2025 will usher in an unprecedented peak of capacity release

In terms of ethylene, the traditional steam cracking route ethylene and ethane production capacity will become the main growth force during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period
.

In 2020, Xinpu Chemical, Panjin Baolai, and Yantai Wanhua have a total of 2.
65 million tons/year of ethane and light hydrocarbon cracking route ethylene capacity put into production, with a production capacity of 3.
25 million tons/year under construction, and a planned production capacity of 6.

In terms of propylene, the production capacity will be multi-headed, and the production will still be based on large production capacity and new processes.

The overall scale of steam cracking, CTO/MTO and PDH under construction and planned production capacity will exceed 30 million tons/year

It is estimated that 8.

83 million tons/year will be put into production in 2021, and steam cracking, CTO/MTO and PDH will be 4 million tons/year, 920,000 tons/year and 3.

　　Following the peak consumption of refined oil products, the peak consumption of petrochemical products will also arrive
.

In order to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutral goal and the development of green plastics, China's ethylene consumption is expected to reach its peak around 2030

　　As the demand for traditional bulk petrochemical products has entered a period of decelerating development, in the case of a sharp increase in supply, it is expected that domestic bulk petrochemical products will face a 70% surplus by 2025, and the comprehensive self-sufficiency rate will reach 116%
.

　　From the perspective of the effective capacity satisfaction rate of major petrochemical products, the C2 ethylene industry chain is facing invisible excess pressure, the C3 industry chain is basically balanced between supply and demand, and the C4 industry chain has a surplus of 25%.

The PX-PTA polyester industry has a relatively large excess pressure, and textile and apparel orders are shifted out.
, The export scale is also expanding

　　The era of "involution" has arrived, and optimization and reorganization have intensified

　　Qu Liang believes that the domestic refining industry accelerates mergers and acquisitions and production capacity integration, and the era of "involution" has come
.

At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the optimization and reconfiguration of the domestic petrochemical industry is intensified: the number of chemical companies that announced bankruptcy in 2018 and 2019 were 189 and 342 respectively.
Under the influence of the 2020 epidemic, there will be more than 320 domestic bankrupt companies

　　Cheng Lihong, director of the Consulting and Evaluation Office of the China National Chemical Economic and Technological Development Center, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there is still a release period of concentrated refining and chemical production capacity.
Lianyungang Shenghong Petrochemical, Jieyang PetroChina Refinery, Liaodong Bay Gulei Refinery, and The new projects of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will be put into production one after another
.

　　From 2021 to 2025, most of the new domestic ethylene capacity will be increased by refining and chemical integration of ethylene and imported ethylene cracking raw materials to produce ethylene.
It is expected that 23.
83 million tons of ethylene capacity will be added during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
At the end of the Fourth Five-Year Plan, the production capacity is close to 58 million tons
.

　　There are several trends in the entire refining and chemical integration project.
One is the development towards the sea, the second is the large-scale installation and the level of scale has been greatly improved, the third is the production capacity expansion is very large, and the fourth is the large-scale entry of some private and foreign capital
.

　　Competition is upstream, profit depends on downstream

　　Qu Liang pointed out that the next 5 to 10 years will be a critical period for the adjustment and upgrading of stock refining and chemical enterprises.
China's entire petrochemical industry will develop in the direction of industrial agglomeration, vertical integration of the industrial chain, and high-end product diversification
.

　　Under the situation of diversified raw materials, how do companies win? Li Xiujie, deputy chief engineer of Jiangsu Serbon Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
, believes that competition is upstream and profitability is downstream
.

　　●For the oil-to-olefin industry, in-depth utilization of by-products is the key, and integration is the trend;

　　●For CTO, the price of polyolefin determines the profit situation;

　　●For MTO companies, basic supporting facilities and industrial chain are critical;

　　●For PDH, there is still a moderate development in the medium and long term
.

　　From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the lightening of olefin raw materials has become a global trend.
If policy factors are not considered, the production of light olefins has strong cost competitiveness and profitability in most of the time
.
From the perspective of downstream products, the olefin route does not happen overnight, and downstream products are the key to profitability
.

　　Li Xiujie suggested:

　　The first is to adapt measures to local conditions and develop moderately; the second is to attach great importance to the source of raw materials; the third is to make a fuss about high-end and refinement; the fourth is to fully extend the industrial chain
.

　　Transfer from: China Chemical Industry Information Weekly