Report: China's non-fossil energy consumption will exceed oil in 2025

Recently, the Economic and Technical Research Institute of Sinopec Group released the "2022 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"
).
The "Report" focuses on the development law and direction of China's energy and chemical industry under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality
.

The "Report" pointed out that under the global carbon reduction target, China's energy sector has taken positive actions
.
On the one hand, we continue to optimize the energy structure, strictly and reasonably control coal consumption, and the proportion of coal consumption continues to decline; On the other hand, the green and low-carbon industry has been strengthened, and the world's advanced low-carbon industrial system has been built, and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation is expected to exceed 1.
2 billion kilowatts
in 2030.
In addition, China has built the world's largest carbon market, and will gradually expand from power to petrochemical, building materials, smelting and other industries
.

Under a series of green and low-carbon actions, the report predicts that China's oil consumption will peak in 2025, leading the world average by 5 years, while the proportion of non-fossil energy will exceed that of oil; By 2040, the proportion of coal consumption will decline significantly, surpassing non-fossil energy; By 2060, China's non-fossil energy will account for more than 80%, exceeding the world average by 10 percentage points
.

Specific to the field of oil refining, the "Report" pointed out that the "three co-ordination" escorts the green development of the industry
.
First, the elimination of backwardness and optimization and upgrading of the overall plan, the industry continues to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, energy consumption indicators have decreased significantly, the refining industry structure continues to be optimized, and it is developing in the direction of large-scale and integration; Second, fuel substitution and transportation structure adjustment are coordinated, and "public to rail, public to water" accelerates the transformation of demand, especially the diversified development of alternative fuels to promote the peak of traditional fuel consumption in advance; The third is the improvement of supervision and structural reshaping as a whole, external control of "export", internal blockage of "non-standard", the market has entered the era of
strong supervision.
In the future, the refining industry will invest in more efficient and environmentally friendly technologies and renewable fuels, and accelerate commercialization; At the same time, a comprehensive transportation energy supply system
will be comprehensively laid out.

The "Report" further pointed out that China's transportation fuel will enter an accelerated replacement period
after 2030.
Before 2030, gasoline demand will gradually enter the platform period, aviation coal will still grow rapidly, and new energy vehicles will enter large-scale development
.
After 2030, transportation fuel will enter an accelerated replacement period, and the alternative fuel cascade will be commercialized and gasoline and diesel will be replaced
.
The accelerated substitution of transportation fuels is expected to reduce carbon emissions by a cumulative total of 4 billion tons
between 2030 and 2050.
After 2050, it began to enter the era of green transportation, mainly retaining some core needs such as chemicals, emergency fuels, and aviation, and transportation fuels were mainly green energy, such as hydrogen, electricity, and biomass energy
.

For alternative fuels, the report points out that electricity will become the main substitute after
2030.
At present, natural gas accounts for a relatively large proportion of alternative fuels, about 58%; By 2030, nearly half of electric vehicles will be replaced, accounting for 47% of alternative fuels; In 2040, electric vehicle substitution will account for an absolute advantage, accounting for 73% of alternative fuels; By 2060, electric vehicles will account for 86%
of all alternative fuels.

Specific to the chemical industry, the report points out that the next step will focus on green, high-end and safety, actively develop degradable and recyclable plastics, develop green and low-carbon petrochemical processes, and launch ecological compensation mechanisms, petrochemical carbon trading and energy trading markets
.
In view of the card neck technology and products to be overcome, at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to improve the self-sufficiency rate of high-end materials by 5-10 percentage points
.
At the same time, improve the concentration and management capacity of the park, and realize 100% collection
of sewage and hazardous waste.

Looking forward to 2060, the report points out that the chemical industry will become the core driving force supporting
future oil consumption.
At present, chemical demand accounts for 16% of oil consumption, which will increase to 28% in 2030 and 45% in 2060, becoming the main force
.
In addition, with the increase of the "ban on plastic bags", the next 10-15 years of green plastics will usher in a period
of development opportunities.
After 2035, CCUS and PTX (Electrochemical and Synthetic Fuel Technology) technologies will restructure the chemical industry chain
under the carbon cycle model.
In the future, CCUS technology can recycle carbon emissions to produce low-carbon footprint chemicals, synthetic fuels; After carbon capture, chemicals with zero carbon footprint and synthetic fuels can also be produced together with hydrogen energy, namely PTX technology, which will be the "crown jewels" of the chemical industry in the future
.