Rubber continues to fluctuate sideways, and it is difficult to destock during the peak supply season

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week of July 16, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 65.
46%, down 1.
18% month-on-month and 4.
73% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 71.
16%, stable month-on-month, down 0.
26%
year-on-year.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Automobile production and sales in June reached a new high
in the same period of the previous year.
3.
General Administration of Customs: China's rubber imports in June increased by 21% year-on-year to 534,000 tons
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18 years state-owned full latex reported 10400 (-100) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10850 (-50) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 12850 (-150) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 warehouse spot reported 1260 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 July cargo reported 1260 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Field glue in Hat Yai raw material market in Thailand 40.
9 (-0.
3) baht/kg; Cup glue 31.
9 (-0.
3) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue is 9.
5-9.
8 (+0/+0) yuan/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 7800 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 7900 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 231080 tons, - 30 tons; NR warehouse receipt 40370 tons, - 1613 tons
.
Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 81605, +1658; short positions 128315, +3256; long and short increased, net short increased
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the overall trend of Banna rubber tapping tends to be normal, and the cutting rate can reach about 70% in previous years, but the situation of small raw materials still exists; The raw materials in the Hainan production area have begun to increase one after another, to a certain extent, easing the rubber collection situation of processing plants, and I heard that the entry of alternative planting raw materials will be postponed to August, and the domestic supply will continue to grow
in the later period.
The production capacity of new rubber in the Thai production area has been released, and the raw materials in the production area are also gradually increasing
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 10, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has accumulated slightly, and it is difficult to destock rubber during the peak supply season
.
In the downstream, there is still uncertainty in overseas epidemic control, and it is difficult for export orders to increase significantly in the short term; The domestic market is affected by the concentrated rain in the south, and the shipment of replacement tires is affected, and most tire manufacturers currently have high inventories, slow shipments, and short-term operating rates or a slight decline
.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
Recently, the fundamentals of supply and demand of Tianjiao are relatively stable, the futures price is greatly affected by the stock market and crude oil market, RU2009 contract continues to fluctuate sideways, short-term recommended to trade in the 10500-10750 range, NR2009 contract is recommended to trade
in the 8500-8900 range.