Rubber is strong and oscillating is expected to increase the expectation of returning to work

The rainfall in the main producing countries of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased, the rubber tapping season is expected to increase the supply of raw materials, the price of glue continues to fall, the expectation of returning to work is strengthened, and the recovery of domestic economic activities in the later period is expected to bring about a stable rebound
of far month contracts.

Futures price difference: On 12.
27, the main closing price of RU was 12800 yuan / ton (+155), and the main closing price of NR was 9675 yuan / ton (+110).

RU basis -550 yuan/ton (-55), NR basis -8 yuan/ton (-44).

RU non-standard price difference of 2125 yuan / ton (+105), tobacco chip import profit + 189 yuan / ton (+172).

Spot market: 12.
27, full latex quotation 12250 yuan / ton (+100), mixed rubber quotation 10675 yuan / ton (+50), 3L spot quotation 11600 yuan / ton (+75), STR20# quotation 1390 US dollars / ton (+15), butylbenzene quotation 10600 yuan / ton (0).

Thai ingredients: raw film 43.
89 (-0.
61), cup glue 39.
20 baht/kg (+0.
20), glue 43.
30 baht/kg (-1.
30), tobacco sheet 47.
04 baht/kg (-0.
06).

Domestic raw materials: Yunnan glue 10800 yuan / ton (0), Hainan glue 11350 yuan / ton (0).

As of 12.
23: total stock on the exchange 180613 (+5791), exchange warehouse receipt 159020 (+1280).

As of 12.
22, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 49.
75% (-6.
76%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 58.
35% (-6.
48%)
.

Viewpoint: On the supply side, the rainfall in the main producing countries of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased, the rubber tapping season is expected to increase the supply of raw materials, the price of glue continues to fall, and the import profit of tobacco chips is stronger; China basically ushered in a complete stoppage, and the price of raw materials in Hainan remained stable; On the demand side, the month-on-month decline in the downstream tire operating rate last week has expanded, and it is expected that the tire operating union will recover as the return of personnel to work continues to arrive; In terms of inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continued to accumulate slightly, as of Tuesday, RU registered warehouse receipts increased slightly, NR warehouse receipts slowed down and stabilized, and consumer terminal tire finished tire inventories remained high
.
In the later period, with the gradual recovery of domestic economic activities, it is expected that the replacement market will improve month-on-month, and rubber will be strongly shocked
.