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Recently, downstream automobile retail sales have declined, tire factory operating load has recovered, and natural rubber prices have shown a volatile trend
as a whole.
In terms of price, the average price of standard rubber, mixed rubber and natural rubber latex showed a volatile upward trend, while the average price of concentrated milk fell
slightly.
The average price of standard rubber (TSR20) fluctuated in the range of 1237.
27-1255.
8 US dollars / ton; The average price of mixed rubber (20#) fluctuated in the range of 1249.
87-1264.
87 US dollars / ton; The average price of concentrated milk fluctuated in the range of 9000-9300 yuan/ton; The average price of natural latex (folded dry) remained in the range of 13055-13080 yuan / ton
.
On the supply side, the main domestic producing areas will gradually resume cutting, and it is expected that there will be a significant recovery by mid-to-late June; Overseas, the weather in southern Thailand has improved slightly, the glue output has not been significantly improved, and the purchase price of raw materials has continued to rise
.
As of the 22nd, the price of cup rubber in Thailand was 33.
5 baht/kg, about 1320 US dollars / ton; The price of Indonesian raw materials is about 13,300 rupiah/kg, which is about
1,095 US dollars / ton.
In terms of inventory, Qingdao port inventory is still at a high level, and the progress of destocking is slow
.
On the demand side, tire enterprises in Shandong Guangrao area resumed production, and the operating load of tire factories in this period increased
slightly.
As of June 19, the starting load of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 67.
11%, up 11.
02 percentage points from the previous week and down 7.
84 percentage points year-on-year; the starting load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.
03%, up 5.
53 percentage points from the previous week and down 9.
65 percentage points
year-on-year.
With the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating load of tire factories may decrease
recently.
In terms of automobiles, according to statistics from the Passenger Association, the average daily retail sales in the first week of June (1-7 days) were 25,700 units, down 10% year-on-year and 20% month-on-month
.
In the second week of June (8-14), daily retail sales averaged 36,600 units, down 17% y/y and up 1% m/m from the second week of May
.
With the release of rigid demand from March to May and previously pent-up demand, coupled with the rapid rise in temperature in June, the auto market entered the traditional off-season, and retail sales may decline
seasonally in June.
Comprehensive analysis, the supply side, the later overseas and domestic production areas gradually expanded, and the supply of new rubber is expected to increase steadily; On the demand side, the operating load of tire factories may decline due to the holiday, the car market has entered the traditional off-season month, the growth momentum of automobile sales has weakened, and the demand for natural rubber may decrease
.
In summary, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will fall
in a short period of time.
