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Benefiting from the decline in the domestic automobile dealer inventory index in June and the month-on-month decline in heavy truck sales, domestic rubber futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of last week, but by the aggravation of overseas European and American recession expectations, European and American stock markets and commodity prices fell sharply dragged down domestic rubber futures to stop rising and falling, weak downward, although rubber prices stabilized and rebounded on Thursday and Friday, but the upside was limited
.
On the macro front, inflationary pressures in Europe and the United States continue to rise, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at its July meeting, while the European Central Bank also plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July and end its bond-buying program
.
The rapid tightening of global liquidity may cause the economy to turn from a stagflation cycle to recession and compress commodity demand, and the macro bearish atmosphere will continue
.
In terms of news, the Ministry of Commerce and 17 other departments issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Invigorate Automobile Circulation and Expand Automobile Consumption," putting forward 12 policy measures
in six aspects.
Despite the general strength of auto stocks, rubber price performance lacked bright spots
.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects domestic automobile sales in June to increase by 20% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month, and the consumption outlook of Tianjiao is relatively optimistic
.
After July, the season of production increase in overseas production areas has arrived, raw material prices have fallen, facing pressure to increase output, and the number of diversion to China has increased, this year's whole milk delivery volume is higher than last year, it is expected that the rubber price before delivery in September is difficult to have outstanding performance
.
This year's full latex production is still controversial, Hainan delayed cutting, followed by attention to concentrated milk diversion and whole milk production
.
In terms of spot, the July FOB price of No.
3 cigarette tablets on July 7 was around 70.
25 baht, down 1.
27 baht
from the previous session.
The July FOB price of No.
20 label rubber was around 58.
43 baht, down 0.
89 baht
from the previous session.
The USS spot price was around 58.
93 baht, up 0.
07 baht
from the previous session.
Short-term external systemic risks form a game
with the improvement of domestic rubber market demand.
Stimulated by the halving of the domestic passenger car purchase tax, the sales volume of the terminal car market picked up month-on-month, and dealer inventories steadily declined
.
In addition, the domestic rubber tapping cost is in the range of 12,000-13,000 yuan / ton, and the low rubber price will inhibit the enthusiasm of
rubber farmers to tap rubber.
In the context of the long-short divergence, short-term domestic rubber futures are expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and stabilization
.
