Rubber weak finishing breaks the rebound pattern

On the supply side, Southeast Asian production areas gradually transitioned to seasonal low production periods, coupled with the recent increase in rainfall in southern Thailand affecting rubber tapping, driving prices to remain firm
.
At present, the phenology of Yunnan production area in China is normal, and the growth of rubber trees is good, and it is expected that there is a possibility
of normal harvesting in late March.

In terms of demand, tire factories in Dongying and Weifang have resumed work and production one after another since the 13th, and tire demand has gradually recovered
.

In terms of stocks, as of February 14, Qingdao's inventory reached 402,500 tons, +5.
73%
month-on-month.
The increase in domestic arrivals and the low level of downstream construction are the main reasons for the accumulation of warehouses in Qingdao, and follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of resumption of work and arrivals
.
In the short term, rubber prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend
.

On the whole, the domestic supply and demand of tianjiao is unlikely to have a significant shortage or excess, and the price of rubber is mainly affected
by phased factors.
If the progress of spot accumulation is slow, the main contract rubber price may still challenge 15,000 yuan; If the start of downstream enterprises continues to be lower than the same period of the previous year, the rubber price may fall to the low point
in June and July 2021.
Considering that the Fed may accelerate the pace of tightening monetary policy in order to fight inflation, macro still has bearish pressure
on rubber prices.
Technically, the rebound of Shanghai rubber after the Spring Festival may end, if the 14,000 yuan mark is lost, the long-term support level may be 12,500-13,000 yuan
.