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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in August was 3.
506 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
6%; The cumulative output from January to August was 26.
472 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
1
%.
Since 8.
21, all electrolytic aluminum production enterprises in Sichuan began to stop production, and in 8.
9, one enterprise took the lead in stopping production due to equipment problems, and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Chongqing stopped grooving
.
The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan is 1.
2 million tons, accounting for nearly 3% of domestic production capacity, and in August, the power rationing in Chongqing, Sichuan affected the production capacity
of local aluminum enterprises.
Electrolytic aluminum inventories increased in August and climbed to record highs for the second month in a row, mainly because new capacity came online, more than offsetting the impact of
power cuts in Sichuan, Chongqing and other places.
2.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina output in August 2022 was 7.
184 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.
1%; The cumulative output from January to August was 54.
443 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
0
%.
Among them, from January to August 2022, Shandong alumina production decreased by 2.
45% year-on-year, and Shanxi and Guangxi alumina production increased by 7.
22% and 11.
37%
year-on-year, respectively.
3.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August 2022 were 540,448.
9 tons, a decrease of 17.
13% from 652,197.
9 tons in July 2022 and an increase of 10.
23% year-on-year; The export value was 2,099.
6 million US dollars, an increase of 21.
14%
year-on-year.
From January to August 2022, the cumulative export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 4,701,092.
1 tons, an increase of 31.
5% year-on-year; The cumulative export value was 1904440 US dollars, an increase of 62.
9%
year-on-year.
4.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's alumina exports in August were 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1843.
1%; From January to August, the cumulative export was 72 tons, a year-on-year increase of 628.
0%.
China's imports of alumina (alumina, except artificial corundum) in August were 156,817.
64 tons, down 0.
73% month-on-month and 60.
22%
year-on-year.
Among them, Australia is the largest supplier, importing 93,241 tons from the country in the month, down 1.
33% month-on-month and 71.
77%
year-on-year.
5.
According to customs statistics, in August this year, Ningbo Port's imports and exports to ASEAN maintained rapid growth, with a total import and export value of 21.
51 billion yuan, an increase of 37.
1% over the same period last year (the same below), accounting for 9.
9%
of the total import and export of Ningbo Port.
Among them, exports were 14.
62 billion yuan, an increase of 48.
3%; Imports were 6.
89 billion yuan, an increase of 18.
2%.
Among them, the import of unwrought aluminum and aluminum and coal and lignite increased exponentially, and in August, Ningbo Port imported unwrought aluminum and aluminum from ASEAN to 470 million yuan, an increase of 121%, accounting for 6.
8% of the total import value of Ningbo Port from ASEAN; Coal and lignite amounted to RMB320 million, an increase of 280%.
In the same period, the import of mechanical and electrical products and agricultural products was 340 million yuan and 300 million yuan, an increase of 15.
4% and 23%
respectively.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
Since September, the absolute price of aluminum has been at a historical high, and as the factors supporting the upward trend of prices are increasingly disintegrating, macro pressure has returned, and aluminum prices have fallen
again.
Represented by Yangtze River spot A00 aluminum ingots, the average price at the beginning of the month was 18,350 yuan / ton, and rose to 18,870 yuan / ton on September 16, the highest price in the month
.
As of September 28, the average price of Yangtze River spot A00 aluminum ingots was 17,950 yuan / ton, which has fallen below the 18,000 mark
.
In terms of the market, although the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, but obviously this year's peak season is not busy, most manufacturers reflect poor orders, basically based on on-demand procurement
.
Approaching the National Day holiday, a small amount of stock at the end of the month is mainly
prepared.
East China: September aluminum prices first rose and then fell, at the beginning of the month due to the impact of the overseas energy crisis, the cost of aluminum enterprises increased sharply, overseas production reduction news continues to come out frequently, boosting aluminum prices ushered in a wave of rebound market, from the beginning of the month of 18100 low rebounded to above 18500, the highest reached 18870 yuan / ton, but later this month, macro pressure pushed aluminum prices downward, the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates to curb inflation, as expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, the dollar trend strong continued to suppress the trend of non-ferrous metals, East China spot aluminum fell below 18000, As low as 17960
.
As of the end of September, the spot aluminum price in East China was between 18320-18360 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the end of August, down 0.
5%.
South China: In September, the price of aluminum ingots in South China also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a fluctuation range of 18250-19400 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum ingot tickets in South China was between 18580-18680 yuan / ton at the end of the month, stable compared with the end of August, and the discount was 20; The overall transaction of the market during the month was not good, and the end of the month improved, some middlemen replenished the inventory in an appropriate amount, and the orders decreased
compared with previous years.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
The latest data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that London aluminum stocks showed an upward trend in September, quickly climbing from the lowest point of 270,000 in mid-to-late August to around 350,000, an increase of 30%, and LME aluminum stocks were 334,000 tons as of September 29, an increase of 57,050 tons from the end of August, an increase of 21%.
Although the recent inventory has increased, but the current inventory is still the low level in the past 20 years, the LME plans to discuss the Russian ban, or will increase the risk of Lun aluminum forced position, the final sanctions can land will determine the direction of the subsequent market, if necessary, the internal and external price difference will change accordingly to achieve the reshaping
of the supply and demand pattern.
Since August, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Exchange has ended the downward trend, and as of September 23, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Exchange was close to 210,000 tons, refreshing the highest level in two and a half months, an increase of 5,434 tons, or 1.
03%,
compared with the end of August.
In September, the domestic social aluminum inventory first increased and then decreased, and it is understood that as of September 26, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 652,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from August, and a decrease of 166,000 tons from the same period last year.
In terms of regions, the mainstream areas of Wuxi, Nanhai and Gongyi covered a 90% decline, mainly in Wuxi
.
On the whole, during the National Day holiday, downstream stocking gradually began, and it is expected that pre-holiday inventories will still decline
slightly.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketIn the first half of September, the price of scrap aluminum in the East China market continued to be strong in August, scrap aluminum prices generally rose, the price of primary raw aluminum once approached the 15,000 mark, the aluminum line rose above 17,000, the second half of this easy to rise and fall situation was broken, scrap aluminum followed the price of aluminum ingots fell sharply, gave up all the gains after turning down, the overall performance of scrap aluminum prices in the East China market in September fell first and then rose
。 As of the end of the month, the price of aluminum alloy spraying old materials in East China was around 14100, bright aluminum wire around 16200, cans around 12500, and the mainstream price of primary raw aluminum was around 14300, of which cans and raw aluminum prices were generally relatively resistant, with little change from August, while the price of type materials and aluminum wire fell by about
100 yuan.
In September, the overall price of scrap aluminum in Liangnan was relatively stable, some material types resisted decline, and some varieties of raw aluminum rose against the trend; Due to the serious shortage of goods in the market during the month, the purchase price of raw materials once increased; However, due to poor production profits, some small and medium-sized enterprises cannot keep up with the fluctuation of spot prices and fluctuations, and some material types have stagflation
.
It is understood that the tight supply of domestic raw aluminum has improved slightly, but the price remains high, and the manufacturer's feedback is almost unprofitable, and the current maintenance of no loss is the best situation
.
Previously, the feedback of recycled aluminum enterprises in the two lakes area was mainly imported scrap, but the price advantage of imported scrap aluminum was also shrinking, and the overall scrap aluminum market transaction was average
.
Entering the traditional gold nine silver ten, downstream demand should have improved, but it is understood that the operating rate of many recycled aluminum companies has not improved, and the sales volume has declined, mainly due to five reasons: shrinking profits, economic recession in the two major export markets of foreign Europe and the United States, strict epidemic prevention and control has led to poor traffic, frequent market fluctuations, and a shortage
of scrap aluminum supplies.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
In September, aluminum prices showed an inverted "V" shaped trend, and Shanghai aluminum hit a high of 19,100 intraday, but it still failed to actually stand, and as of the end of the month, the cumulative decline was nearly 1%; The "Golden Nine" peak season expectations were disappointed, the strong support momentum at the bottom of aluminum prices weakened, and at the end of the month, due to the global recession expectation of strengthening commodities, aluminum prices returned to the low range of shock
。 In the future, the risk points that need to be vigilant still come from the macro aspect, the accelerated tightening brought about by high overseas inflation will put pressure on global risk assets, and even induce further liquidity risks, and this macro weakness will continue to the end of the year and even next year, will continue to put pressure on aluminum prices, so as far as the price trend in October is concerned, even if the recovery of short-term supply and demand and the delocalization of inventories will promote the stabilization of aluminum prices or even a slight recovery, but the space for continued climbing is limited.
The pressure level refers to 18,500, and the subsequent overall price center of gravity may still have the risk of moving downward, and the fluctuation range of aluminum prices within the month is 1.
75-19,000
.
