Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment on August 9

In terms of macro, the total value of imports and exports in July was 3.
81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.
6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate of exports exceeded expectations, increasing for three consecutive months; U.
S.
nonfarm payrolls rose by 528,000 in July on Friday, the highest since February, far exceeding expectations of 250,000, and expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September were sharply raised
.

There is no expectation of more production cuts on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, and the resumption of production is still stable; There is insufficient new orders on the demand side, and some downstream orders in the off-season in August are still in a downward trend, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, the current concern about the European energy crisis and the low level of electrolytic aluminum inventories have a certain supporting effect on aluminum prices, the latest domestic social inventory has increased slightly, the market transaction is weak and the pressure of accumulation, the spot discount range continues to expand, East China today compared with the 2208 contract discount 90 yuan / ton, discount expanded by 20 yuan / ton, Central Plains Gongyi area, spot discount level is 120 yuan / ton, but the market has a few low-price discount 140-150 yuan / ton shipment, it is expected that aluminum prices are still volatile
.